16711 Marsh Creek Rd Unit C · Antioch, CA 94517

$125,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured · 142 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $104k · 21% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming and thoughtfully designed tiny home nestled in a peaceful Clayton community. This 1-bedroom, 1-bath residence offers a large kitchen, cozy living room, and a versatile loft—ideal for additional sleeping space or storage. Step out onto the inviting front porch and take in serene meadow views, where you can enjoy the calming sounds of a visible creek and grazing cows, your own slice of country tranquility. The park community features outstanding amenities including a clubhouse, pool, gym, and park, enhancing both comfort and lifestyle. Ideally situated approximately 10 miles from both Downtown Clayton and Brentwood, this home offers convenient access to shopping

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• Front porch
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT
• FRONT PORCH
• MEADOW VIEWS
• VISIBLE CREEK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Clayton Regency park; Pets allowed upon approval; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, dog park, guest parking, laundry; pet restrictions apply

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking spaces
• Utilities: Standard utilities (water, sewer, electric)
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single-wide mobile home
• Construction: Wood siding; Model: CCHPT; Approximately 480 square feet living area
• Exterior features: Deck; Community pool; 2 mobile homes on one lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom suite (street level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Main entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Community laundry available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,792 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.38%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd	0.10mi	1/1.0	480 (0%)	16mo	$104,000	$217	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $26,660
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $84,015
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $825	-5% $781	+0% $738	+5% $694	+10% $651
Rent	-10% $570	-5% $654	+0% $738	+5% $821	+10% $905
Rate	-1.0pp $801	-0.5pp $770	base $738	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,900 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,900 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,900 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,900 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,900 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $125,900 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $129,900
17. 2026-02-10
    price $134,900
18. 2026-01-30
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $7,333
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $7,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-12.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $129,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $134,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $149,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR