14 Lincoln Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$699,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot $844/sqft · 11% below area Est $784k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This adorable 2-bedroom cottage offers the perfect blend of charm and comfort for summer escapes or year-round living. Bright and cheery throughout, the home features vaulted ceilings and skylights that fill the space with natural light, along with natural gas heat and central air conditioning for year-round comfort. Step outside to enjoy the deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The detached garage adds incredible versatility with its own bath, heat, tiled floor, and air conditioning, making it perfect for a studio, workspace, guest overflow, or hobby area. A wonderful Hamptons retreat with character and flexibility!

Key facts

• Natural gas heat
• Tiled floor
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS
• NATURAL GAS HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• TILED FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $901 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $666k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $657k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,655/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $196k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($657k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $699k implies a 832% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $657,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $783,512
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -10.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Springville Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	774 (-6%)	14mo	$675,000	$872	65
32 Hampton Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (+9%)	8mo	$635,000	$706	53
119 Ponquogue Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (+1)	824 (-0%)	23mo	$480,000	$583	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-20,924
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $214,946
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,398
• Net cashflow: $901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,515

Max offer price $699,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.64mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.79mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	1.01mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	44d	1	1.08mi
164 W Montauk Hwy Hampton Bays, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	610	$2,975	$4.88	44d	1	1.22mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $699,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $699,000 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    This adorable 2-bedroom cottage offers the perfect blend of charm and comfort for summer escapes or year-round living. Bright and cheery throughout, the home features vaulted ceilings and skylights that fill the space with natural light, along with natural gas heat and central air conditioning for year-round comfort. Step outside to enjoy the deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The detached garage adds incredible versatility with its own bath, heat, tiled floor, and air conditioning, making it perfect for a studio, workspace, guest overflow, or hobby area. A wonderful Hamptons retreat with character and flexibility!

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $759,000 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    This adorable 2-bedroom cottage offers the perfect blend of charm and comfort for summer escapes or year-round living. Bright and cheery throughout, the home features vaulted ceilings and skylights that fill the space with natural light, along with natural gas heat and central air conditioning for year-round comfort. Step outside to enjoy the deck—ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The detached garage adds incredible versatility with its own bath, heat, tiled floor, and air conditioning, making it perfect for a studio, workspace, guest overflow, or hobby area. A wonderful Hamptons retreat with character and flexibility!

17. 1999-01-08
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,800 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,307 · $692/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,506/yr (+$292/mo · 73.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $79,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,389
• − Management: −$6,389
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $10,976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+832.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $759,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,800 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.