1828 Rayburn Ave · Guntersville, AL 35976

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1950 6,969 sqft lot $118/sqft · 11% below area Est $155k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Property or Starter Home. 3 Bed 1 Bath Newly Remodeled. New Cabinets, Appliances, Paint & Flooring T/O. Metal Roof. Has Underground Storm Shelter. Close to Downtown & Lake Guntersville

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• NEW CABINETS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• UNDERGROUND STORM SHELTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.1% in Guntersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#323 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, schools D.
• Guntersville City (town): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #28 of 129 in AL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 467 active listings in the ZIP; 163 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.38%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,843
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -12.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1808 Obrig Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-0%)	16mo	$67,000	$59	82
1609 Obrig Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+10%)	4mo	$180,000	$144	62
1629 S Gunter Ave SE	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+14%)	7mo	$247,500	$190	57
2128 Dunlap Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (+7%)	19mo	$322,500	$263	43
1905 Short St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	23mo	$85,000	$84	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,915
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $42,940
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35976

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 467
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $464/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,016

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $135,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Great Investment Property or Starter Home. 3 Bed 1 Bath Newly Remodeled. New Cabinets, Appliances, Paint & Flooring T/O. Metal Roof. Has Underground Storm Shelter. Close to Downtown & Lake Guntersville

17. 2026-04-17
    price $145,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Great Investment Property or Starter Home. 3 Bed 1 Bath Newly Remodeled. New Cabinets, Appliances, Paint & Flooring T/O. Metal Roof. Has Underground Storm Shelter. Close to Downtown & Lake Guntersville

18. 2026-04-06
    price $155,000 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Great Investment Property or Starter Home. 3 Bed 1 Bath Newly Remodeled. New Cabinets, Appliances, Paint & Flooring T/O. Metal Roof. Has Underground Storm Shelter. Close to Downtown & Lake Guntersville

19. 2026-02-10
    listed $165,000 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Great Investment Property or Starter Home. 3 Bed 1 Bath Newly Remodeled. New Cabinets, Appliances, Paint & Flooring T/O. Metal Roof. Has Underground Storm Shelter. Close to Downtown & Lake Guntersville

20. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $4,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $464 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $554 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$7/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$464
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$815
• After-tax cash flow: $4,620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guntersville City
• NCES district ID: 0101690
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,203
• Composite: 33.36/100
• National rank: #5482
• State rank: #28 of 129 in AL

Livability — Guntersville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #323
• US rank: #19857

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guntersville, AL
• City population: 16,604
• Population (ZIP): 16,604

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 98,138 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 98,502 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 97,024 · -0.4%
• By 2075: 89,334 · -8.3%
• By 2100: 74,749 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -56.4pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.7 2016: R+69.5 2012: R+60.1 2008: R+56.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.75%
• Current HPI: 223.0157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-96.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $135,000 VMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $145,000 VMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $155,000 VMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $165,000 VMLS
• 2023-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $4,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $464 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.