1810 S Nickel St · Deming, NM 88030

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1970 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL THE WORK HAS BEEN DONE! House is move in ready! Upgrades include tile throughout the house, painting done throughout including kitchen remodel. Gigantic living area-dining area, & kitchen have been opened up to look very modern & functional. Large footage in this floor plan includes den off master bedroom (nursery?), hobby room or office, video library, a large utility room. Fenced back yard, 2-car garage, 2-car carport, plus a workshop/storage. Check this property out for your family!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 115x142 lot
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE
• METAL ROOF
• 115X142 LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#73 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities D+, schools F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-28,659
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,198
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,281/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2108 S Shelly Dr Deming, NM	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,800	$0.99	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-10
   price $215,000
3. 2025-11-19
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2015-10-30
   soldstatus 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   ALL THE WORK HAS BEEN DONE! House is move in ready! Upgrades include tile throughout the house, painting done throughout including kitchen remodel. Gigantic living area-dining area, & kitchen have been opened up to look very modern & functional. Large footage in this floor plan includes den off master bedroom (nursery?), hobby room or office, video library, a large utility room. Fenced back yard, 2-car garage, 2-car carport, plus a workshop/storage. Check this property out for your family!

5. 2015-09-14
   listed $129,000 505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (505 chars)

   ALL THE WORK HAS BEEN DONE! House is move in ready! Upgrades include tile throughout the house, painting done throughout including kitchen remodel. Gigantic living area-dining area, & kitchen have been opened up to look very modern & functional. Large footage in this floor plan includes den off master bedroom (nursery?), hobby room or office, video library, a large utility room. Fenced back yard, 2-car garage, 2-car carport, plus a workshop/storage. Check this property out for your family!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$439/yr (+$37/mo · 34.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,281
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$602
• After-tax cash flow: $1,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Deming

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #15165

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deming, NM
• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $215,000 NMMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $225,000 NMMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2015-09-14 Listed $129,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,281 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.