19084 Oliver Ln · Onyx, CA 93255

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 283 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you've have been searching for peace, space and unforgettable Mountain Views this is it. Perfect for anyone who loves nature. Fresh air, and the beauty of Lake Isabella just minutes away.

Key facts

• Lake isabella
• Mountain views
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LAKE ISABELLA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,132 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elementary (344 students, 71% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.98%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $49,596
• Equity at exit: $74,292

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $134,540
• Equity at exit: $139,402

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93255

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $236	+0% $205	+5% $174	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $161	+0% $205	+5% $249	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $233	base $205	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $110,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 282 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 278 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $110,000 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 265 DOM
16. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 264 DOM
17. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 263 DOM
18. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 262 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 261 DOM
20. 2026-05-01
    price $110,000 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you've have been searching for peace, space and unforgettable Mountain Views this is it. Perfect for anyone who loves nature. Fresh air, and the beauty of Lake Isabella just minutes away.

21. 2026-03-23
    price $95,000 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you've have been searching for peace, space and unforgettable Mountain Views this is it. Perfect for anyone who loves nature. Fresh air, and the beauty of Lake Isabella just minutes away.

22. 2025-10-11
    price $110,000 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you've have been searching for peace, space and unforgettable Mountain Views this is it. Perfect for anyone who loves nature. Fresh air, and the beauty of Lake Isabella just minutes away.

23. 2025-08-04
    listed $120,000 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    If you've have been searching for peace, space and unforgettable Mountain Views this is it. Perfect for anyone who loves nature. Fresh air, and the beauty of Lake Isabella just minutes away.

24. 2022-08-21
    historical
25. 2022-06-07
    status Pending Sale
26. 2022-05-02
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2022-03-30
    listed $39,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $585 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,065
• − Management: −$1,065
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $683
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Onyx

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1132
• US rank: #25709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onyx, CA
• Population (ZIP): 739

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Current HPI: 565.4615
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $110,000 GEMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $95,000 GEMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $110,000 GEMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2022-08-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-06-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-03-30 Listed $39,600 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $585 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.