21 Columbia Ave · Trenton, NJ 08618

$250,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1912 1,742 sqft lot Est $223k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the charming community of The Island, this delightful Colonial twin home offers a unique blend of comfort and convenience. With four spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom, the residence is designed for both relaxation and entertaining. The allure of the nearby Delaware River enhances the lifestyle here, inviting leisurely strolls along the water's edge and tranquil moments spent soaking in the serene views. The property boasts a full basement, providing ample storage or potential for customization to suit your needs. The modest sized, virtually maintenance free lot, offers a cozy outdoor space perfect for intimate gatherings or quiet evenings under the stars. This is more than ju

Key facts

• Built 1912
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating
• Home design: Semi-detached frame structure; Above-grade living spaces
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Water-oriented property on the Delaware River; Located in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level; Master bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heating; Electric baseboard heating; Wall unit cooling; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Sitting room; Screened porch; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,864/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $250k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Lee Ave	0.08mi	4/1.5	1,550 (+2%)	9mo	$165,000	$106	84
1806 Riverside Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,556 (+2%)	11mo	$285,000	$183	76
57 Sanhican Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,567 (+3%)	12mo	$350,000	$223	74
21 N Westfield Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-3%)	1mo	$135,000	$92	72
28 Lee Ave	0.10mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,422 (-7%)	22mo	$177,500	$125	61
101 Lee Ave	0.05mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,351 (-11%)	17mo	$275,000	$204	56
1408 Stuyvesant Ave	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,404 (-8%)	1mo	$201,000	$143	55
1464 Stuyvesant Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,627 (+7%)	9mo	$235,000	$144	44
1426 Stuyvesant Ave	0.67mi	4/1.0	1,404 (-8%)	15mo	$228,000	$162	43
1474 Stuyvesant Ave	0.69mi	4/1.0	1,404 (-8%)	17mo	$185,000	$132	40
1432 Stuyvesant	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,404 (-8%)	16mo	$230,000	$164	40
1450 Stuyvesant Ave	0.68mi	4/1.0	1,404 (-8%)	19mo	$205,000	$146	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,534
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,853
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08618

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,864 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,958/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,749

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Clearfield Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.5	1358	$3,000	$2.21	12d	1	0.09mi
1442 W State St Trenton, NJ	5.0	2.5	1956	$3,000	$1.53	12d	1	0.19mi
20 N Overbrook Ave Unit B Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1518	$2,300	$1.52	12d	1	0.87mi
73 Oak Ln #2 Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1886	$2,300	$1.22	13d	1	0.97mi
649 W State St Trenton, NJ	5.0	2.0	1870	$2,900	$1.55	12d	1	0.97mi
600 Artisan St Unit 126 Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	20d	1	1.12mi
600 Artisan St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	12d	3	1.12mi
510 N Hermitage Ave Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.5	1316	$2,500	$1.90	12d	1	1.12mi
830 Lower Ferry Rd Ewing, NJ	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,975	$2.07	13d	1	1.22mi
1800 Kathy Dr Yardley, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1101	$3,065	$2.78	1d	11	1.44mi
311 Spring St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	13d	1	1.44mi
510 W Hanover St Trenton, NJ	5.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	13d	1	1.46mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	1.48mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,958 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,092 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,133/yr (+$94/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,371
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,958
• − Insurance: −$6,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,750
• − Management: −$2,750
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $1,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,634
• Household income: $50,390
• Rent vs Own: 54.2% rent · 45.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.54%
• Current HPI: 288.6841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1288.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-14 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-01 Listed $144,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-06 Listed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $66,523 Public Records
• 2007-05-02 Sold (MLS) $66,573 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-04-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-24 Listed $66,573 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,958 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.