406 NW 7th St · Mulberry, FL 33860

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1918 4,008 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. INVESTOR ALERT! Package Deal Opportunity This property must be sold together with the neighboring house at 404 NW 7th St ($80,000) and includes adjoining vacant land at no additional cost. Total Package Investment: $160,000 for two houses +2 vacant land lots Investment Highlights: Ideal buy-and-hold opportunity for rental income Additional vacant land included provides future development potential Two storage sheds on property Mature shade trees throughout spacious yard ?Multiple revenue stream possibilities This is an excellent value-add opportunity for investors looking to build a rental portfolio or develop multiple units. The combination o

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Two storage sheds
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated; Zoning: R-1; Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Additional parcels included
• Financial info: Lease restrictions: none
• HOA & community: No HOA or community association

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces north; Stilt / on piling foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage; Three separate lots; Total acreage between 1/4 and less than 1/2 acre; Lot dimensions approximately 76 x 52

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/Window cooling units
• Interior features: No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#311 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.07%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $23,136
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.73×
• Total profit: $61,139
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,476 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 SW 3rd Ter Mulberry, FL	3.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	3d	1	0.49mi
315 SE Drive Martin Luther King Junior Ave Mulberry, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,275	$2.12	23d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   status Active
3. 2026-02-16
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-25
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,714
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $5,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mulberry

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #5311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mulberry, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 24,892
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.