2512 38th St SW · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$332,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily · 421 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $349k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Digital thermostat
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENERGY-SMART FEATURES
• DIGITAL THERMOSTAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,000

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage / parking spaces (total 3)
• Home design: Single-family property; Sylvester floor plan
• Exterior features: Address: 2512 38th St SW, Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home — Sylvester plan; Living area approximately 1,806

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $332k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 788 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 421 days — a 12% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,142 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 421 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,558
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2600 38th St SW	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (-10%)	0mo	$350,000	$215	75
4602 Beth Ave S	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,757 (-3%)	4mo	$274,500	$156	67
2900 33rd St SW	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+1%)	12mo	$353,240	$193	62
348 Pyramid Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-4%)	9mo	$355,900	$205	61
339 Pyramid Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-9%)	3mo	$320,000	$195	57
341 Pyramid Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,637 (-9%)	4mo	$315,000	$192	56
2505 43rd St SW	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-9%)	10mo	$345,000	$209	55
2515 29th St SW	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,630 (-10%)	1mo	$315,000	$193	52
2907 44th St SW	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,852 (+2%)	12mo	$230,000	$124	48
363 Paulcrest Ave	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,925 (+7%)	1mo	$375,000	$195	47
20473 Copperhead Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+12%)	9mo	$370,000	$182	42
190 Pennfield St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (-14%)	11mo	$299,900	$193	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $145,195
• Equity at exit: $299,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $438,078
• Equity at exit: $645,003

Cash invested: $92,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 788
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$415 /mo · $4,980/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,904

Max offer price $266,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-223	-5% $-338	+0% $-453	+5% $-567	+10% $-682
Rent	-10% $-637	-5% $-545	+0% $-453	+5% $-360	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-285	-0.5pp $-368	base $-453	+0.5pp $-539	+1.0pp $-626

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,000
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,799	$1.32	16d	1	0.49mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,799	$1.30	18d	1	0.49mi
749 Alabama Rd S Unit 749 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,800	$1.41	4d	1	0.55mi
4601 Elva Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2362	$2,500	$1.06	23d	1	0.56mi
20483 Copperhead Dr Unit 20483 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$2,300	$1.24	12d	1	0.56mi
397 Pennfield Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	25d	1	0.58mi
325 Paulcrest Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1619	$2,300	$1.42	25d	1	0.58mi
3001 37th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.5	1235	$1,705	$1.38	25d	1	0.60mi
177 Pennfield St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,850	$1.48	25d	1	0.60mi
4701 Connie Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,900	$1.45	16d	1	0.63mi
20555 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,490	$1.23	5d	1	0.67mi
20550 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2002	$3,500	$1.75	25d	1	0.68mi
2513 48th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1423	$1,750	$1.23	18d	1	0.69mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,930	$1.38	4d	1	0.71mi
2916 42nd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,960	$1.40	5d	1	0.71mi
2710 28th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1742	$2,450	$1.41	25d	1	0.71mi
212 Pullman St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2396	$1,800	$0.75	25d	1	0.73mi
2708 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1698	$2,280	$1.34	5d	1	0.76mi
3012 40th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,950	$1.37	25d	1	0.80mi
234 Pullman St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	0.82mi
227 Pennfield St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1732	$2,275	$1.31	25d	1	0.82mi
20681 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$3,000	$1.23	25d	1	0.84mi
633 Alabama Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2422	$1,500	$0.62	25d	1	0.88mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,000	$1.42	5d	1	0.88mi
507 Peerless Cir Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,100	$1.49	25d	1	0.88mi
2602 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,800	$1.33	5d	1	0.90mi
20720 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	2434	$2,500	$1.03	25d	1	0.90mi
2811 25th St SW Unit NA Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,990	$1.39	25d	1	0.91mi
2911 48th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	12d	1	0.92mi
208 Pembroke St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	25d	1	0.94mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #421 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	25d	1	0.99mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #431 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$3,995	$3.07	25d	1	0.99mi
2507 53rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,950	$1.14	5d	1	1.00mi
2819 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1472	$2,250	$1.53	25d	1	1.01mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	18d	1	1.01mi
3114 39th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,100	$1.41	5d	1	1.01mi
4704 Karen Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1916	$2,500	$1.30	5d	1	1.02mi
2908 51st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,796	$1.28	5d	1	1.03mi
2512 54th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,750	$0.95	5d	1	1.03mi
4702 Loraine Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,000	$1.48	16d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $332,000 Active 421 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $332,000 Active 417 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,000 Active 416 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,000 Active 415 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,000 Active 413 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,000 Active 409 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $332,000 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $332,000 Active 401 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $332,000 Active 400 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,980
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$11,395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,735
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B