623 Coyote Canyon Ct · Magnolia, TX 77354

$249,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 9,657 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $259k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well maintained one story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! This inviting brick home offers great curb appeal with a well manicured front yard and a spacious two car garage. Step inside to an open concept living area with high ceilings. Perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen showcases granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly into the main living space. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a spacious bathroom featuring dual sinks and a clean, modern design. Secondary bedrooms are well sized, ideal for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer included, plus additional storage and shelving. Step outside to a covered patio and spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. This home combines comfort, functionality, and value all in one! Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Ample cabinetry
• Brick home

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• CURB APPEAL
• WELL MANICURED FRONT YARD
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,671 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.50%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,624
• List price: $249,995
• Delta: -3.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-6%)	2mo	$242,995	$149	77
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,609 (-7%)	1mo	$220,995	$137	76
510 Sabino Sky Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,889 (+9%)	2mo	$274,995	$146	75
232 Harlingen Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-6%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	72
660 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,889 (+9%)	3mo	$259,995	$138	69
30102 Dunlevy St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	6mo	$349,990	$194	67
822 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,944 (+12%)	3mo	$269,852	$139	67
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-6%)	9mo	$252,799	$155	66
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-6%)	10mo	$249,995	$153	64
511 Broken Boulder St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,944 (+12%)	20mo	$269,995	$139	56
213 Harlingen Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+6%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	54
41526 S Brenda Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,989 (+15%)	22mo	$465,000	$234	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $103,107
• Equity at exit: $225,215

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $316,216
• Equity at exit: $485,685

Cash invested: $69,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$649 /mo · $7,787/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,613

Max offer price $172,671

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-296	-5% $-367	+0% $-438	+5% $-508	+10% $-579
Rent	-10% $-600	-5% $-519	+0% $-438	+5% $-356	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-374	base $-438	+0.5pp $-502	+1.0pp $-568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,499
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,024	$1.44	0d	1	0.03mi
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	26d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,995 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,995 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,995 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,995 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,995 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,995 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,995 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,995 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,995 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,995 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,995 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $249,995 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,995 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,995 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-03-29
    listed $259,995 Active 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (968 chars)

    Welcome to this well maintained one story home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms! This inviting brick home offers great curb appeal with a well manicured front yard and a spacious two car garage. Step inside to an open concept living area with high ceilings. Perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen showcases granite countertops, ample cabinetry, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly into the main living space. The primary suite offers a comfortable retreat with a spacious bathroom featuring dual sinks and a clean, modern design. Secondary bedrooms are well sized, ideal for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the convenience of a dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer included, plus additional storage and shelving. Step outside to a covered patio and spacious backyard perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings. This home combines comfort, functionality, and value all in one! Schedule your private tour today.

16. 2025-03-25
    historical $1,200
17. 2025-03-25
    listed $1,200
18. 2025-02-06
    historical $1,600
19. 2025-02-04
    listed $1,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,787 · $649/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,787 · $649/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$7,787
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms offers a good condition and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and carpet replacement to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16149.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Listed $259,995 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Rental Removed $1,200 REDFIN
• 2025-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,200 REDFIN
• 2025-02-06 Rental Removed $1,600 APPFOLIO
• 2025-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,600 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+138.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,787 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.