The Erin - Build On-Your-Lot Plan · Millville, DE 19967

$299,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Erin by Bay to Beach Builders is a popular ranch-style home offering 1,677 heated sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms in a smart, open-concept layout ideal for families, retirees, or anyone seeking single-level living. A bright great room welcomes you inside, seamlessly connecting to the dining area and kitchen for effortless entertaining and everyday comfort. Large windows bring in natural light, and optional features like a great room extension or covered porch enhance indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen provides ample counter space, modern appliances, and an efficient layout, while the dining area offers a cozy spot for meals and gatherings. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath, with optional upgrades such as a luxury tiled shower or double vanity. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. A two-car garage provides plenty of storage and parking, with layout options including a side-load design or garage extension. The Erin's thoughtful design ensures every square foot is used efficiently, balancing beauty and practicality. With charming curb appeal and a modern, versatile interior, the Erin is crafted for lasting comfort and style-perfect as a cozy retreat or a forever home.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Ample counter space
• Great room extension

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM EXTENSION
• COVERED PORCH
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $299,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $519,487.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#49 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lord Baltimore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 67%, grade B-, #4 of 105 statewide, top 4%, 579 students, 0% FRL); Selbyville Middle School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #12 of 36 statewide, top 34%, 719 students, 0% FRL); Indian River High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #10 of 40 statewide, top 26%, 1,088 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 33% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Indian River School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,952 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.52%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,487
• List price: $299,800
• Delta: -42.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32256 Old School Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+1%)	4mo	$620,000	$365	86
32670 Cedar Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+1%)	3mo	$386,000	$227	84
38 Hudson Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-3%)	4mo	$450,000	$276	76
223 Chad Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-4%)	2mo	$580,000	$359	72
14 Woods Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	8mo	$519,000	$302	69
18 Whites Creek Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+10%)	7mo	$594,000	$323	58
31434 Oak St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-6%)	4mo	$330,000	$210	55
12 Windmill Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,837 (+10%)	4mo	$399,900	$218	53
24 Assawoman Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,779 (+6%)	9mo	$440,000	$247	52
6 Jordyn Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	9mo	$576,000	$320	49
36728 Baltimore Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+10%)	4mo	$385,000	$208	47
13 S Primrose Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	5mo	$394,000	$271	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-143,464
• Equity at exit: $129,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-217,656
• Equity at exit: $138,815

Cash invested: $145,456 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $471,848 ($271/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 19967

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,792/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-1,695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,615

Max offer price $274,264

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,336	-5% $-1,515	+0% $-1,695	+5% $-1,874	+10% $-2,054
Rent	-10% $-1,890	-5% $-1,792	+0% $-1,695	+5% $-1,597	+10% $-1,500
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,433	-0.5pp $-1,563	base $-1,695	+0.5pp $-1,829	+1.0pp $-1,966

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,872
• Closing costs: $15,585
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Village Green Dr Ocean View, DE	3.0	2.5	2076	$2,445	$1.18	62d	3	0.79mi
30839 Cedar Neck Rd Ocean View, DE	4.0	2.0	2040	$2,950	$1.45	93d	1	1.16mi
37580 Mahogany St Ocean View, DE	4.0	3.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	93d	1	1.18mi
33697 Ashland Dr Frankford, DE	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	93d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $299,800 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $299,800 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $299,800 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $299,800 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $299,800 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-25
   days on market $299,800 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-23
   days on market $299,800 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,800 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,800 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,800 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,800 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,800 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-06-14
    days on market $299,800 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,800 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-06-10
    days on market $299,800 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,800 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,800 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,800 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,800 Active 145 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,800 Active 144 DOM
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,800 Active 143 DOM
22. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,800 Active 142 DOM
23. 2026-03-20
    price $299,800 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    The Erin by Bay to Beach Builders is a popular ranch-style home offering 1,677 heated sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms in a smart, open-concept layout ideal for families, retirees, or anyone seeking single-level living. A bright great room welcomes you inside, seamlessly connecting to the dining area and kitchen for effortless entertaining and everyday comfort. Large windows bring in natural light, and optional features like a great room extension or covered porch enhance indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen provides ample counter space, modern appliances, and an efficient layout, while the dining area offers a cozy spot for meals and gatherings. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath, with optional upgrades such as a luxury tiled shower or double vanity. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. A two-car garage provides plenty of storage and parking, with layout options including a side-load design or garage extension. The Erin's thoughtful design ensures every square foot is used efficiently, balancing beauty and practicality. With charming curb appeal and a modern, versatile interior, the Erin is crafted for lasting comfort and style-perfect as a cozy retreat or a forever home.

24. 2026-01-08
    listed $295,400 Active 1308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1308 chars)

    The Erin by Bay to Beach Builders is a popular ranch-style home offering 1,677 heated sq. ft. , 3 bedrooms, and 2 bathrooms in a smart, open-concept layout ideal for families, retirees, or anyone seeking single-level living. A bright great room welcomes you inside, seamlessly connecting to the dining area and kitchen for effortless entertaining and everyday comfort. Large windows bring in natural light, and optional features like a great room extension or covered porch enhance indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen provides ample counter space, modern appliances, and an efficient layout, while the dining area offers a cozy spot for meals and gatherings. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath, with optional upgrades such as a luxury tiled shower or double vanity. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. A two-car garage provides plenty of storage and parking, with layout options including a side-load design or garage extension. The Erin's thoughtful design ensures every square foot is used efficiently, balancing beauty and practicality. With charming curb appeal and a modern, versatile interior, the Erin is crafted for lasting comfort and style-perfect as a cozy retreat or a forever home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 93% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,634
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,099
• − Property taxes: −$7,792
• − Insurance: −$3,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,371
• − Management: −$2,371
• − Depreciation: −$15,112
• Taxable loss: −$30,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,385–$25,155 screening

The Erin by Bay to Beach Builders is a well-maintained ranch-style home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It offers a smart, open-concept layout ideal for families and retirees, with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lord Baltimore Elementary School B- DE #4/105 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Selbyville Middle School F DE #12/36 Nat'l #7,581/14,009 High Indian River High School F DE #10/40 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Millville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #13839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millville, DE
• County: Sussex · 248,853 people
• City population: 2,093
• Population (ZIP): 2,093
• Household income: $89,545
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.85%
• Current HPI: 263.8607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,800 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Listed $295,400 Zillow