8105 Burnt Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$284,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,745 sqft · Land · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 5,040 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Love where you live in Wayside Village in Houston, TX! The Woodland floor plan is a spacious 2-story home with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, game room, and a 2-car garage. This home has it all, including vinyl plank flooring throughout the first-floor common areas! The gourmet kitchen is sure to please with 42" cabinetry, granite countertops, and stainless-steel appliances! Retreat to the first-floor Owner's Suite featuring a beautiful bay window, double sinks with granite countertops, a separate tub and shower, and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms have walk-in closets, too! Enjoy the great outdoors with a covered patio! Don't miss your opportunity to call Wayside Villag

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• 42 cabinetry

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• 42 CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (30.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall El (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,127 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 610 students, 98% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,982/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $198,229 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $112,427
• Equity at exit: $229,210

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $326,441
• Equity at exit: $467,653

Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,229/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,217

Max offer price $252,196

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-24	-5% $-105	+0% $-186	+5% $-266	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-264	+0% $-186	+5% $-107	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-113	base $-186	+0.5pp $-259	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,248
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,520	$1.49	9d	1	0.21mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.22mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.37mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	0.45mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.55mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.57mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	0.57mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	0.63mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	0.69mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	16d	1	0.76mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.76mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	26d	1	0.77mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.81mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.87mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.91mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	9d	1	0.94mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	1.03mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	1.03mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	1.11mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	1.11mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	45d	1	1.12mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	3d	5	1.12mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.35mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	1.40mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	26d	1	1.47mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $284,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,215 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,987/yr (+$332/mo · 324.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,229
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,766
• After-tax cash flow: $-462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $284,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+36.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,229 · +36.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.