Lily Plan · Midland, TX 79705

$262,950

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 830 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 829 days

🏗️ New construction. The $262,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,084.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $263k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 830 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,396 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 830 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.50%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,084
• List price: $262,950
• Delta: -9.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1401 Brand Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+4%)	10mo	$310,000	$187	58
7112 Anticline Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-14%)	14mo	$285,000	$208	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,969
• Equity at exit: $43,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-32,819
• Equity at exit: $25,254

Cash invested: $81,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,532
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,381/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $292,084

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,021
• Closing costs: $8,763
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	21d	1	0.37mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.45mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	43d	1	0.46mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	21d	1	0.49mi
1341 Loess St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$2,795	$1.72	43d	1	0.54mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	13d	1	0.57mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	13d	1	0.59mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	43d	1	0.61mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	21d	1	0.62mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	43d	1	0.62mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	13d	1	0.64mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	43d	1	0.64mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	43d	1	0.65mi
1325 Hogback Way Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	43d	1	0.65mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	43d	1	0.66mi
1300 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,150	$1.65	21d	1	0.66mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.67mi
1301 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.67mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	43d	1	0.67mi
1336 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,899	$1.52	43d	1	0.69mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	43d	1	0.70mi
1348 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$3,100	$1.62	43d	1	0.70mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	43d	1	0.71mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	21d	1	0.71mi
1341 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,950	$1.54	21d	1	0.72mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	43d	1	0.72mi
1416 Bajada St Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1933	$3,150	$1.63	13d	1	0.73mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	13d	1	0.73mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	21d	1	0.73mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	43d	1	0.75mi
1115 Overshine Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,600	$1.39	13d	1	0.84mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	13d	1	0.90mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	13d	1	0.93mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	13d	1	1.12mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	13d	1	1.18mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	21d	1	1.24mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	13d	1	1.25mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	13d	1	1.33mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	43d	1	1.37mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $262,950 Active 830 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $262,950 Active 829 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $262,950 Active 828 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $262,950 Active 827 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $262,950 Active 826 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $262,950 Active 824 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $262,950 Active 823 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $262,950 Active 821 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $262,950 Active 820 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,950 Active 819 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,950 Active 818 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,950 Active 814 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,950 Active 813 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,950 Active 812 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,950 Active 811 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $262,950 Active 810 DOM
17. 2026-02-09
    price $262,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

18. 2025-10-27
    price $263,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

19. 2025-03-26
    price $264,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

20. 2024-10-16
    price $260,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

21. 2024-09-18
    price $257,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

22. 2024-06-14
    price $258,950 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

23. 2024-03-12
    listed $263,950 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    The 1,600 square-foot Lily floor plan gives you more room to spread out, with a layout that keeps life flowing. Brick exteriorLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered front and back patios

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,361
• − Property taxes: −$4,381
• − Insurance: −$1,460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$8,497
• Taxable loss: −$3,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $2,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good layout and high-end finishes. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $262,950 Zillow
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $263,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $264,950 Zillow
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $260,950 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $257,950 Zillow
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $258,950 Zillow
• 2024-03-12 Listed $263,950 Zillow