222 Avalon St · Brookhaven, MS 39601

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1946 0.32 ac lot $61/sqft · at area comps Est $45k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DIYers or investors take a look at this 2 Bedroom 1 Bath cottage at only $45k. Backyard has bragging rights for large family get togethers or a pickup game of football for the kids. With a little work around the edges the opportunities are endless.

Key facts

• Backyard
• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1946

Tags

• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 4.9% in Brookhaven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#96 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brookhaven School District (town): math 29% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #73 of 130 in MS (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mamie Martin Elementary School (688 students, 100% FRL); Alexander Junior High School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #85 of 179 statewide, top 48%, 405 students, 99% FRL); Brookhaven High School (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #117 of 197 statewide, top 59%, 769 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.77%
• DSCR: 3.44
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,037
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -0.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.33×
• Total profit: $29,346
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $72,757
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39601

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $530/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $601	-5% $588	+0% $575	+5% $562	+10% $550
Rent	-10% $488	-5% $531	+0% $575	+5% $619	+10% $663
Rate	-1.0pp $598	-0.5pp $587	base $575	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $552

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $45,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $45,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    DIYers or investors take a look at this 2 Bedroom 1 Bath cottage at only $45k. Backyard has bragging rights for large family get togethers or a pickup game of football for the kids. With a little work around the edges the opportunities are endless.

19. 2026-01-13
    historical
20. 2023-11-15
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $530 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$530
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $5,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookhaven School District
• NCES district ID: 2800840
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,498
• Composite: 23.49/100
• National rank: #7874
• State rank: #73 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brookhaven

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #12022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brookhaven, MS
• City population: 23,748
• Population (ZIP): 23,748

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,188 people
• By 2030: 33,627 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 32,089 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 29,981 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 23,581 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 16,413 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.4) · D 27.0% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.4 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.93%
• Current HPI: 159.7072
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-11-15 Listed $45,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $530 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.