2319 Duncan St · Louisville, KY 40212

$85,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 92 Days on market

Built 1900 6,046 sqft lot Est $163k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• 6,046 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 92 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Traditional single-family residence; 2 stories; Built in 1900
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 31 x 190

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the first floor; 4 bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; No half bathrooms
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $85k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.02%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,200
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2535 Duncan St	0.22mi	5/2.0	2,100 (-4%)	10mo	$170,000	$81	72
2013 Bank St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,126 (-2%)	2mo	$36,500	$17	68
2628 Bank St	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,166 (-0%)	2mo	$165,500	$76	66
2523 Saint Xavier St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,894 (-13%)	9mo	$30,000	$16	50
2424 Saint Xavier St	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,921 (-12%)	19mo	$190,650	$99	42
2513 W Chestnut St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,108 (-3%)	14mo	$144,000	$68	40
2036 Portland Ave	0.47mi	5/1.5	1,890 (-13%)	18mo	$141,300	$75	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $93,941
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.59×
• Total profit: $228,276
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,699 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $862	-5% $838	+0% $813	+5% $789	+10% $765
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $746	+0% $813	+5% $881	+10% $948
Rate	-1.0pp $856	-0.5pp $835	base $813	+0.5pp $791	+1.0pp $769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 N 26th St Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	1538	$1,700	$1.11	24d	1	0.28mi
2319 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1644	$1,300	$0.79	16d	1	0.56mi
858 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	5.0	1.0	2228	$2,100	$0.94	17d	1	1.26mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $85,000
15. 2026-04-28
    price $90,000
16. 2026-04-23
    price $95,000
17. 2026-04-14
    price $100,000
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $110,000 Active
19. 2025-09-30
    historical
20. 2025-08-18
    listed $115,000 Active
21. 2025-07-09
    historical
22. 2025-07-03
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus $21,500 Closed
24. 2020-10-18
    historical Active Under Contract
25. 2020-10-14
    listed $30,000 Active
26. 2017-01-06
    historical
27. 2016-04-07
    listed $40,000 Active
28. 2016-04-07
    price $24,999
29. 2016-04-07
    price $24,998
30. 2016-04-07
    price $19,899
31. 2016-04-07
    price $19,900
32. 2016-04-07
    price $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,631
• − Management: −$1,631
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,135
• After-tax cash flow: $7,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+240.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $90,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $95,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $100,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $115,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-11-06 Sold (MLS) $21,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-10-18 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-10-14 Listed $30,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-01-06 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Listed $40,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $25,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $19,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $19,899 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $24,998 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-04-07 Price Changed $24,999 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.