145 Oriole Dr · Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2009 0.27 ac lot $94/sqft · 10% below area Est $128k · 10% under $35/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Very well kept home in Audubon Hills in Rayburn Country. This charming home has a detached garage and is fully fenced in. There is a beautiful porch on the front and a great place outside the back door to sit and relax. The home offers a split bedroom floor plan. The primary bedroom features a huge bath with walk in shower and soaker tub. There is an inside laundry room hidden in the kitchen. Most of the furniture and appliances can convey. Its time to start planning for your home at beautiful Lake Sam Rayburn. Experience the beauty of Rayburn with the amenities of Rayburn Country!

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Inside laundry room
• Detached garage

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $420 (approximately $35/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Lot in Rayburn Country subdivision; 0.27-acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric heat
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Central air conditioning; Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($406/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.6% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brookeland El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 162 students, 65% FRL); Brookeland H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 179 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($794 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,002 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,000
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -10.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Bluejay Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$128,000	$105	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $5,900
• Equity at exit: $40,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $31,567
• Equity at exit: $55,652

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,608/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $66	+0% $34	+5% $1	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $-9	+0% $34	+5% $76	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $63	base $34	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 588-char remark
2. 2025-08-16
   listed $114,900 Active 588-char remark
3. 2019-06-27
   soldstatus
4. 2019-06-27
   soldstatus
5. 2019-04-15
   soldstatus
6. 2019-04-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,608 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,103 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$495/yr (+$41/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,608
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$1,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$359
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookeland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,145
• Composite: 42.74/100
• National rank: #6781
• State rank: #445 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sam Rayburn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-11 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $114,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2019-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,608 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.