11965 River Rd · Brandermill, VA 23838

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1963 2.00 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper opportunity in a fantastic Chesterfield County location! About halfway between The Highlands and Lake Chesdin, you'll love the rural feel and the 2 acre lot this home is perfectly positioned on! In need of complete renovation, here is a home you can invest in and realize a great return by reselling it or by keeping it as a long term investment! The oil furnace is approximately two years old and the electrical service was updated at some point. There's a paved driveway, older thermal windows, and a dawn to dusk light. This one is in need of complete renovation and will not qualify for most forms of financing. Cash offers preferred. An investor's dream.

Key facts

• Thermal windows
• Paved driveway
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• CHESTERFIELD COUNTY LOCATION
• 2 ACRE LOT
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• THERMAL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.25%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $63,151
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $165,570
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23838

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,610/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $1,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,427	-5% $1,387	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,308	+10% $1,268
Rent	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,234	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,461	+10% $1,575
Rate	-1.0pp $1,418	-0.5pp $1,383	base $1,347	+0.5pp $1,311	+1.0pp $1,274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   listed $140,000 Active
3. 2026-01-05
   historical
4. 2025-07-17
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,610
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $14,791
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,550
• After-tax cash flow: $12,619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,364
• Population (ZIP): 17,213

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.94%
• Current HPI: 257.6855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $140,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $199,900 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,610 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.