33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr. Unit 13 Unit weeks 37,38,43 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition 1.81 ac lot $83/sqft · 57% above area $467/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime location on the Oregon Coast! Say goodbye to the stresses of homeownership with this hassle-free fractional ownership retreat! Dog-friendly and designed for ultimate comfort, this property offers three fixed weeks of enjoyment each year, giving you the perfect ocean getaway for a lifetime. Boasting stunning ocean views from nearly every window, this home features a gourmet kitchen, heated slate floors in the bathrooms, and a relaxing jetted soaking tub, among countless other upgrades. With three spacious bedrooms and two well-appointed bathrooms, the oceanfront primary and great room. Your fees cover taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities through the annual HOAâ€"ensuring a worry-free ownership. Plus, you'll have access to the luxurious amenities of the Headlands Lodge and Spa.

Key facts

• Jetted soaking tub
• Oceanfront primary
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• HEATED SLATE FLOORS
• JETTED SOAKING TUB
• OCEANFRONT PRIMARY
• GREAT ROOM
• LUXURIOUS AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 1.8% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $693 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.41%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,333
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 57.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 5, week 27	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	8mo	$72,000	$63	91
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 8, week 29	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	12mo	$45,000	$39	89
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 14, week 34	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	20mo	$60,000	$52	83
5755 Barefoot Ln	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+2%)	6mo	$583,500	$496	70
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 10 Wk 29	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (-14%)	12mo	$45,916	$47	61
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3WK29	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (-14%)	11mo	$47,000	$48	60
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 3 Wk 29	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (-14%)	13mo	$47,000	$48	58
5835 Barefoot Ln	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,249 (+9%)	11mo	$573,000	$459	53
33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (-14%)	22mo	$53,500	$54	52
5990 Summerhouse Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+10%)	10mo	$632,000	$498	49
5785 Barefoot Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,314 (+14%)	19mo	$619,000	$471	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $55,080
• Equity at exit: $31,100

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $135,429
• Equity at exit: $40,318

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$467
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,422

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $917	-5% $884	+0% $851	+5% $819	+10% $786
Rent	-10% $654	-5% $753	+0% $851	+5% $950	+10% $1,049
Rate	-1.0pp $899	-0.5pp $876	base $851	+0.5pp $827	+1.0pp $802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35480 Salal Ln Pacific City, OR	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $467 · $5,604/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-02-16
    listed $95,000 Active 816-char remark

    Show marketing remark (816 chars)

    Prime location on the Oregon Coast! Say goodbye to the stresses of homeownership with this hassle-free fractional ownership retreat! Dog-friendly and designed for ultimate comfort, this property offers three fixed weeks of enjoyment each year, giving you the perfect ocean getaway for a lifetime. Boasting stunning ocean views from nearly every window, this home features a gourmet kitchen, heated slate floors in the bathrooms, and a relaxing jetted soaking tub, among countless other upgrades. With three spacious bedrooms and two well-appointed bathrooms, the oceanfront primary and great room. Your fees cover taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities through the annual HOAâ€"ensuring a worry-free ownership. Plus, you'll have access to the luxurious amenities of the Headlands Lodge and Spa.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$5,604
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $9,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $7,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This oceanfront property offers stunning views and modern amenities, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Upgrade flooring to luxury vinyl plank — Durable, easy to clean, and adds value
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Upgrade flooring to luxury vinyl plank — Durable, easy to clean, and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $95,000 OCMLS