5743 Stockton Hartfield Rd · Mayville, NY 14728

$94,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1999 1.20 ac lot $61/sqft · 63% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom 2.5 bath home sitting on 1.2 acres in the Town of Dewittville, NY, features a large open kitchen with breakfast dining area, lots of natural sunlight, formal dining and shared living room with fireplace or option for wood stove. Primary bed features a jetted tub and full bath. The two bedrooms are roomy with closet space. The Detached garage has plenty of room for storage and also an entertainment area/bar. There are two overhead doors on the garage for easy equipment storage as well. The water system is serviced by a well and septic and also has a Culligan water filtration system attached. The home is also heated with propane forced air furnace. If you like to snowmobile, this home is one you might want to look at for seasonal living or all season living as it is close to the Snowmobile trails for winter and Chautauqua Lake for the summer months.

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Natural sunlight
• Jetted tub

Tags

• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST DINING AREA
• NATURAL SUNLIGHT
• FORMAL DINING
• FIREPLACE
• JETTED TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#259 in NY, #4,087 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chautauqua Lake Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #218 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($656 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.79%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,458
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -63.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $34,174
• Equity at exit: $50,604

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.45×
• Total profit: $91,790
• Equity at exit: $84,818

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14728

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,291/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $922

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $94,900 Active 873-char remark

    Show marketing remark (873 chars)

    Three bedroom 2.5 bath home sitting on 1.2 acres in the Town of Dewittville, NY, features a large open kitchen with breakfast dining area, lots of natural sunlight, formal dining and shared living room with fireplace or option for wood stove. Primary bed features a jetted tub and full bath. The two bedrooms are roomy with closet space. The Detached garage has plenty of room for storage and also an entertainment area/bar. There are two overhead doors on the garage for easy equipment storage as well. The water system is serviced by a well and septic and also has a Culligan water filtration system attached. The home is also heated with propane forced air furnace. If you like to snowmobile, this home is one you might want to look at for seasonal living or all season living as it is close to the Snowmobile trails for winter and Chautauqua Lake for the summer months.

16. 2017-02-28
    soldstatus $120,500
17. 2016-12-28
    soldstatus $120,500 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Note: SNOWMOBILE TRAILS JUST SECONDS OUTSIDE YOUR BACK DOOR !!!! Also New Price as of 6/6/2016. Absolute move in condition, 3 Bath, Central Air, Large Country Kitchen, Well manicured lot, Newer 24x30 garage with front and rear over head doors. This garage has been fully insulated and all side walls are tongue/groove knotty pine. Black top driveway and more. Sale subject to owner finding suitable housing. Call today for your Private Showing. Correction on Zoning, this property is zoned R-1 not Agricultural.

18. 2016-04-21
    listed $120,500 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Note: SNOWMOBILE TRAILS JUST SECONDS OUTSIDE YOUR BACK DOOR !!!! Also New Price as of 6/6/2016. Absolute move in condition, 3 Bath, Central Air, Large Country Kitchen, Well manicured lot, Newer 24x30 garage with front and rear over head doors. This garage has been fully insulated and all side walls are tongue/groove knotty pine. Black top driveway and more. Sale subject to owner finding suitable housing. Call today for your Private Showing. Correction on Zoning, this property is zoned R-1 not Agricultural.

19. 2003-03-05
    soldstatus $84,800
20. 2003-03-05
    soldstatus $84,800
21. 2002-11-29
    listed $87,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,291 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$2,291
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $2,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chautauqua Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600018
• Math proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 52.84/100
• National rank: #1535
• State rank: #218 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mayville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #4087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 856

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.44%
• Current HPI: 336.7808
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $120,500 Public Records
• 2016-12-28 Sold (MLS) $120,500 UNYREIS
• 2016-04-21 Listed $120,500 UNYREIS
• 2003-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $84,800 Public Records
• 2003-03-05 Sold (MLS) $84,800 UNYREIS
• 2002-11-29 Listed $87,600 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,291 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.