1640 Southpointe Dr · Yuba City, CA 95991

$300,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1997 5,663 sqft lot Est $578k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, with the main bathroom including a tub with a shower overhead. The kitchen boasts granite countertops and is complemented by a formal dining area. Appliances include a dishwasher and disposal, with laundry facilities conveniently located inside the room.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($276/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Yuba City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#111 in CA, #3,863 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Yuba City Unified (urban): math 20% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #263 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverbend Elementary (968 students, 71% FRL); Gray Avenue Middle (688 students, 89% FRL); Yuba City High (math 19% / reading 54%, grade F, #602 of 1,170 statewide, top 52%, 1,822 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 58% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Sutter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,822/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sutter County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,217 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $577,570
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Southland	0.31mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,608 (+1%)	9mo	$600,000	$230	69
503 Millfront Ave	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,590 (0%)	3mo	$515,000	$199	65
1371 Delone Dr	0.44mi	5/3.0	2,497 (-4%)	17mo	$456,000	$183	59
1463 La Grande Ave	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,542 (-2%)	20mo	$675,000	$266	58
2212 Gerald Dr	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,311 (-11%)	3mo	$513,990	$222	57
2183 Gerald Dr	0.50mi	5/3.0	2,311 (-11%)	2mo	$515,990	$223	57
1728 Columbia Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,764 (+7%)	13mo	$675,000	$244	54
1377 Geneva Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,470 (-5%)	10mo	$499,000	$202	53
1462 La Grande Ave	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-11%)	13mo	$620,000	$269	47
1325 Delone Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,281 (-12%)	6mo	$410,000	$180	47
183 Lonely Oak St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,422 (-6%)	16mo	$465,000	$192	34
1157 Woodhaven Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,259 (-13%)	11mo	$539,000	$239	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,421
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,112
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95991

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,100/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $108	+0% $23	+5% $-62	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-89	+0% $23	+5% $134	+10% $246
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $99	base $23	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
738 Lask Dr Yuba City, CA	4.0	3.0	2590	$2,800	$1.08	45d	1	0.05mi
1883 Rapid Water Way Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	2096	$2,900	$1.38	45d	1	0.72mi
1151 John Wayne Dr Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	1968	$2,400	$1.22	45d	1	0.91mi
504 Diamond Pointe Way Yuba City, CA	4.0	3.0	2564	$2,900	$1.13	23d	1	1.00mi
199 Mississippi Dr Yuba City, CA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,600	$1.41	23d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2021-12-02
   soldstatus $450,000
2. 2003-07-16
   soldstatus $235,000
3. 1997-06-10
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,100 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,100 · $508/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,100
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,709
• − Management: −$2,709
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $1,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuba City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0643470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,923
• Composite: 31.55/100
• National rank: #5956
• State rank: #263 of 517 in CA

Livability — Yuba City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3863

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yuba City, CA
• County: Sutter County · 81,625 people
• City population: 81,625
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,579
• Household income: $70,590
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1674.0

Population outlook (Sutter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,244 people
• By 2030: 97,170 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 96,137 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 93,604 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 85,008 · -12.6%
• By 2100: 71,584 · -26.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 37% Two or more races 19% Asian 12% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sutter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.1% · R 64.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+16.3 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.11%
• Current HPI: 240.3835
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+429.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $450,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,100 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.