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13302 Hayden Peak Dr 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 27.49
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.5/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +2.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.4/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$359,990

13302 Hayden Peak Dr · Arcola, TX 77583
4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Harrington by Smith Douglas Homes, located in the sought-after master-planned community of Creekhaven, is a stunning two-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a covered rear patio. A welcoming foyer opens to a private study with elegant French doors—perfect for a home office. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area, and family room, creating a bright and inviting space ideal for both daily living and entertaining. The kitchen features a large island with stylish pendant lighting. Upstairs, the spacious owner’s suite boasts an impressive 21' x 16' layout with a tray ceiling, dual sinks, a garden tub, and a separate walk-in shower.

Key facts

  • Covered rear patio
  • Large island
  • Private study

Tags

COVERED REAR PATIOPRIVATE STUDYOPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTLARGE ISLANDRESORT-STYLE POOLPLAYGROUND

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $359,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,045.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-830 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (25.8% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (31.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $246k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
  • Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer $246,214 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.64% ✗
Cap rate
3.72%
Cash-on-cash
-9.19%
DSCR
0.59
GRM
13.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$387,045
List price
$359,990
Delta
-13.68%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
18 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2502 Caspian Creek Ln 0.19mi 4/3.0 2,543 (-1%) 1mo $449,990 $177 87
2702 Ruby Laurel Dr 0.28mi 4/3.0 2,575 (+0%) 1mo $439,532 $171 84
2514 Shallow Lake Ln 0.34mi 4/3.0 2,543 (-1%) 3mo $449,990 $177 78
2805 Ruby Laurel Dr 0.23mi 4/3.0 2,679 (+4%) 2mo $379,990 $142 78
2907 Copper Falls Dr 0.09mi 4/2.5 2,252 (-12%) 5mo $334,990 $149 71
13323 Padre Bay Ln 0.16mi 4/2.5 2,252 (-12%) 2mo $329,990 $147 70
2801 Ruby Laurel Dr 0.23mi 4/3.0 2,236 (-13%) 1mo $342,990 $153 65
2710 Ruby Laurel Dr 0.28mi 4/2.0 2,264 (-12%) 1mo $394,100 $174 65
13742 Olympic River Ln 0.54mi 4/3.5 2,516 (-2%) 3mo $449,888 $179 65
2822 Ruby Laurel Dr 0.25mi 4/3.0 2,190 (-15%) 0mo $344,990 $158 62
13510 Nyx Stars Dr 0.24mi 4/3.0 2,190 (-15%) 6mo $351,990 $161 58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-35.6%
Equity multiple
-0.12×
Total profit
$-121,647
Equity at exit
$57,710
10-year hold
IRR
-68.3%
Equity multiple
-0.82×
Total profit
$-197,679
Equity at exit
$33,465

Cash invested: $108,373 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
68 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply
34.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$371,490 ($157/sqft)
Median days on market
30 d
This list price
41% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1445
Price-to-rent
12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,462 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,030
Tax est. 1.5%
−$484 /mo · $5,806/yr
Insurance
−$161
HOA
−$100
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$517
Net cashflow
$-830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,512
Max offer price $266,987
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-562 -5% $-696 +0% $-830 +5% $-963 +10% $-1,097
Rent -10% $-1,024 -5% $-927 +0% $-830 +5% $-732 +10% $-635
Rate -1.0pp $-635 -0.5pp $-731 base $-830 +0.5pp $-930 +1.0pp $-1,032

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$96,761
Closing costs
$11,611
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Builder: Smith Douglas HomesLiving area approximately 2,565
HOA & community
Association: VCM, Inc.Annual association fee of $1,200Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, and trailsAssociation fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (2 spaces)
Security
Owned security system
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction
Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardFenced back yardSubdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on second floor (21' x 16')Bedroom on second floor (11' x 12')Bedroom on second floor (9' x 11')Bedroom on second floor (9' x 11')
Flooring
CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Crown moldingDouble vanityEntrance foyerGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fan(s)Kitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsElectric fireplace (1)
Laundry & utility
Electric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 10 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 11 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 9 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 8 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 7 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 6 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 3 DOM
  7. 2026-07-28
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $359,990 Active 1 DOM
  8. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 987-char remark
  9. 2026-04-02
    price $334,111 987-char remark
  10. 2026-03-30
    listed $344,111 Active 987-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$29,546
− Mortgage interest
−$21,681
− Property taxes
−$5,806
− Insurance
−$1,935
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,364
− Management
−$2,364
− HOA
−$1,200
− Depreciation
−$11,259
Taxable loss
−$17,063
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$4,095
After-tax cash flow
$-5,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in Creekhaven is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a modern kitchen, spacious rooms, and a well-maintained exterior. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑
  • Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alvin ISD
NCES district ID
4808090
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$66,740
Composite
38.96/100
National rank
#4080
State rank
#255 of 826 in TX
D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

Score
53/100
State rank
#1425
US rank
#24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population
52,747
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,414 people
By 2030
457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040
532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050
605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075
779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100
883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin
R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-07-28 Listed $359,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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