558 Arches Ln · Barboursville, VA 22923

$414,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot 2-car garage $188/sqft · 9% below area Est $458k · 9% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Creekside 2-Story! An amenity rich community featuring 2 pools, clubhouse with fitness center, playground, pickleball courts, walking trails and much more! Located north of Charlottesville off Route 29, set in a peaceful scenic area with beautiful mountain views. With a Fall Delivery, this Elder floorplan offers 4 to 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bath, & 2-car garage; including the option to choose a versatile loft or convert it into an additional bedroom to suit your lifestyle needs.

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• 2 pools
• Playground

Tags

• 2 POOLS
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• WALKING TRAILS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $344k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($118k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $343,827 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $457,527
• List price: $414,990
• Delta: -9.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
94 Everglades Rd	0.01mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$424,760	$223	67
27 Everglades Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$416,980	$219	62
140 Gunnison Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,925 (-13%)	3mo	$465,000	$242	61
47 Everglades Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	3mo	$421,480	$221	61
39 Everglades Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$418,980	$220	60
107 Everglades Rd	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	5mo	$435,310	$229	60
92 Everglades Rd	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	4mo	$419,990	$221	60
293 Trailfork Rd Lot 84	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,210 (+0%)	0mo	$439,289	$199	59
82 Everglades Rd	0.19mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,903 (-14%)	6mo	$451,815	$237	58
234 Trailfork Rd	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (+0%)	4mo	$459,990	$208	56
205 Trailfork Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,210 (+0%)	3mo	$404,750	$183	55
215 Trailfork Rd	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+9%)	3mo	$439,780	$183	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-83,477
• Equity at exit: $61,876

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-93,267
• Equity at exit: $35,881

Cash invested: $116,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 51 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.2 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $424,990 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$722
• Net cashflow: $-257

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,763

Max offer price $377,850

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-113	+0% $-257	+5% $-400	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-392	+0% $-257	+5% $-121	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-151	base $-257	+0.5pp $-364	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,748
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 Everglades RD Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	1903	$2,795	$1.47	62d	1	0.17mi
95 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1464	$2,950	$2.01	0d	12	0.71mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	62d	1	0.85mi
100 Fir Tree Ln Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.5	2802	$2,895	$1.03	21d	1	1.19mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Model name: ELDERBuilder-provided finished area and area sources
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $105Association covers common area maintenance, clubhouse, fitness facility, pools, road maintenance, snow removal and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, pool, tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garageGarage with opener and front-facing garageOff-street parkingConcrete drivewayElectricity to garage
• Security: Deadbolt locksSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsRadon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family homeTwo storiesNew constructionLow VOC paint/materialsHERS Index score verification
• Construction: Stick-built construction with vinyl sidingInsulated Concrete Forms (ICFs) and blown-in insulationPoured slab foundationArchitectural roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lotCommunity pool and association pool accessSidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second levelAdditional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom (main level)Primary bathroom on second level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and coolingProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closetsEntrance foyerHome officeKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windows with low-e glass, screens, and tilt-in functionality
• Laundry & utility: Second-level laundry with washer and dryer included

HOA detail $105/mo · $1,260/yr

• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $414,990 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $414,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $414,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $414,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $414,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-05
   listed $414,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,301
• − Management: −$3,301
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$12,072
• Taxable loss: −$10,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,015–$33,045 screening

This single-family home in Creekside is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and efficiently, which can improve comfort and energy efficiency, thus increasing property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for potential buyers or renters looking for updated spaces. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ruckersville Elementary C+ VA #583/1,108 Nat'l #8,292/41,679 Middle William Monroe Middle C VA #226/342 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High William Monroe High C+ VA #256/319 Nat'l #3,898/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 20,465 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Model name: ELDERBuilder-provided finished area and area sources
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $105Association covers common area maintenance, clubhouse, fitness facility, pools, road maintenance, snow removal and trashAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, playground, pool, tennis courts, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2-car garageGarage with opener and front-facing garageOff-street parkingConcrete drivewayElectricity to garage
• Security: Deadbolt locksSmoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectorsRadon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground electricCable availableFiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family homeTwo storiesNew constructionLow VOC paint/materialsHERS Index score verification
• Construction: Stick-built construction with vinyl sidingInsulated Concrete Forms (ICFs) and blown-in insulationPoured slab foundationArchitectural roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lotCommunity pool and association pool accessSidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposalRefrigeratorENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second levelAdditional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom (main level)Primary bathroom on second level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and coolingProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: Double vanityWalk-in closetsEntrance foyerHome officeKitchen islandProgrammable thermostatRecessed lightingInsulated windows with low-e glass, screens, and tilt-in functionality
• Laundry & utility: Second-level laundry with washer and dryer included

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $414,990 CAAR