28818 Texas Sparrow Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 265 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,269 sqft lot $148/sqft · 16% below area Est $299k · 16% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Be the first to call this stunning, brand-new 4-bed, 2-bath home yours—nestled in one of Houston’s fastest-growing master-planned communities. Designed for modern living, this home offers unmatched comfort and style, with future on-site schools, playgrounds, and a resort-style pool just steps away. Opportunities like this don’t last—secure your spot in Hockley’s most exciting new development! Also available for rent!! Hablamos español!

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• New development
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITIES
• ON-SITE SCHOOLS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• NEW DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($659/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13789% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $211,494 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,263
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -16.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16718 Sparrow Colony Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+2%)	1mo	$278,990	$162	87
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (-3%)	2mo	$251,990	$153	82
27306 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+6%)	2mo	$283,990	$158	81
16306 Speckled Wren St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+6%)	2mo	$275,991	$154	69
16818 Spotted Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-14%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	68
28915 Rustic Robin Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+6%)	1mo	$284,990	$159	68
28927 Bison Haven Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+3%)	0mo	$252,990	$146	67
16218 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,627 (-4%)	2mo	$266,990	$164	66
28838 Golden Wheat Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+3%)	2mo	$253,672	$146	65
28915 Bison Haven Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+5%)	1mo	$260,000	$146	62
28842 Golden Wheat Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-9%)	2mo	$244,190	$159	60
29119 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,565 (-7%)	1mo	$272,290	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,246
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-57,254
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 122 active · 129 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,290 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $126	+0% $55	+5% $-16	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-29	+0% $55	+5% $138	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $119	base $55	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	7d	1	0.23mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	11d	1	0.23mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	139d	1	0.25mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	10d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $250,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $250,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 261 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $250,000 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 241 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 240 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 239 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 238 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $250,000 Active 236 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 235 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 234 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 233 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 232 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $250,000 Active 231 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $250,000 Active 230 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 229 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $250,000 Active 228 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 227 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 226 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 225 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 224 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $250,000 Active 223 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 222 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 221 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 220 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 219 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 217 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 215 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 214 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 211 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 209 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $250,000 Active 208 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $250,000 Active 206 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $250,000 Active 204 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 203 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 202 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,367/yr (+$281/mo · 278.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This stunning, brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in a fast-growing master-planned community is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both buyers and renters. The home's excellent condition and modern features make it a standout in the area.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and enhance the home's curb appeal at night. ↑
• Resale Upgrade countertops — Upgraded countertops can add value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract tech-savvy renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $277,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $258,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $253,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $285,990 HARMLS