28818 Texas Sparrow Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,690 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 5,269 sqft lot $148/sqft · 17% below area Est $299k · 17% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Be the first to call this stunning, brand-new 4-bed, 2-bath home yours—nestled in one of Houston’s fastest-growing master-planned communities. Designed for modern living, this home offers unmatched comfort and style, with future on-site schools, playgrounds, and a resort-style pool just steps away. Opportunities like this don’t last—secure your spot in Hockley’s most exciting new development! Also available for rent!! Hablamos español!

Key facts

• Playgrounds
• New development
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITIES
• ON-SITE SCHOOLS
• PLAYGROUNDS
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• NEW DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $197 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13789% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.38%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,438
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -16.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-1%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	80
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (-1%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	80
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (-3%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	77
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+13%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	71
16859 Spotted Oak Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-13%)	1mo	$270,990	$185	66
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+4%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	66
16303 Golden Corral Ln	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-2%)	1mo	$332,990	$201	65
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+5%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	63
16307 Golden Corral Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-7%)	1mo	$303,990	$193	62
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,776 (+5%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	59
17407 Sage Run Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+6%)	0mo	$276,900	$155	49
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+14%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,704
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-40,171
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.25mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.51mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-03-11
    historical $1,800
15. 2026-01-03
    listed $1,800
16. 2026-01-01
    historical $1,850

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Be the first to call this stunning, brand-new 4-bed, 2-bath home yours—nestled in one of Houston’s fastest-growing master-planned communities. Designed for modern living, this home offers unmatched comfort and style, with future on-site schools, playgrounds, and a resort-style pool just steps away. Opportunities like this don’t last—secure your spot in Hockley’s most exciting new development! Also available for rent!! Hablamos español!

17. 2026-01-01
    listed $250,000 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Be the first to call this stunning, brand-new 4-bed, 2-bath home yours—nestled in one of Houston’s fastest-growing master-planned communities. Designed for modern living, this home offers unmatched comfort and style, with future on-site schools, playgrounds, and a resort-style pool just steps away. Opportunities like this don’t last—secure your spot in Hockley’s most exciting new development! Also available for rent!! Hablamos español!

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-30
    price $1,850
20. 2025-09-12
    price $250,000
21. 2025-08-29
    price $1,900
22. 2025-08-28
    price $270,000
23. 2025-08-22
    listed $277,000 Active
24. 2025-07-30
    price $1,950
25. 2025-07-09
    listed $2,000
26. 2025-05-23
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2025-04-09
    price $285,990
28. 2025-04-09
    status Pending
29. 2025-04-07
    price $258,000
30. 2025-04-01
    price $253,000
31. 2025-04-01
    listed $285,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,367/yr (+$281/mo · 278.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$432
• After-tax cash flow: $2,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This stunning, brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home in a fast-growing master-planned community is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both buyers and renters. The home's excellent condition and modern features make it a standout in the area.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and enhance the home's curb appeal at night.
• Resale Upgrade countertops — Upgraded countertops can add value and appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract tech-savvy renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Outdoor lighting can improve safety and enhance the home's curb appeal at night. ↑
• Resale Upgrade countertops — Upgraded countertops can add value and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and attract tech-savvy renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $277,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $285,990 HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $258,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $253,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $285,990 HARMLS