7816 Betsy Ross Cir #7816 · Centerville, OH 45459

$154,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,024 sqft · Condo public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1981 $175/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BIDDING OPEN TO INVESTORS! LARGE 2 Bed Townhouse in Quiet Cul de Sac. HUD Case #411-453640.FHA Insured & 203K eligible. CALL Today for A Private Showing!! A HUD home is a 1-to-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD as a result of a foreclosure action. HUD becomes the property owner and offers it for sale. You must show ability to pay for the property via a pre-approval letter from a qualified lender or proof of funds to bid. HUD homes are sold through licensed realtors only via an online sealed bid process. Once your bid has been accepted by HUD you have 15 days to have a whole house inspection performed. HUD Properties are sold as is. Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed and subject to change. Generally, there are no property disclosures. Buyer Must Rely On Own Inspections

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Minutes from parks
• Minutes from dining

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR BALCONY
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM DINING
• MINUTES FROM PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is listed for sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $175; HOA covers grounds maintenance, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: 2-story residence; Entry level at ground (level 0); Residential zoning
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (8 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (14 x 12); Second-floor room (15 x 12) — can be used as bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Entry foyer; Living room; Dining room; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level utility room (7 x 4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $135,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-30,779
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-35,574
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45459

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,265/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $139,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3	-5% $-41	+0% $-84	+5% $-128	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-142	+0% $-84	+5% $-27	+10% $31
Rate	-1.0pp $-7	-0.5pp $-45	base $-84	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7815 Betsy Ross Cir Unit 7821 Betsy Ross Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1190	$1,395	$1.17	24d	1	0.01mi
7850 Betsy Ross Cir Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,450	$1.42	4d	1	0.06mi
7605 Washington Village Dr Dayton, OH	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1300	$1,565	$1.20	4d	3	0.55mi
402 Windsor Park Dr #408 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.57mi
7742 Brams Hill Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1240	$1,600	$1.29	4d	1	0.58mi
1031 Cambridge Station Rd Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,449	$1.60	4d	9	0.62mi
7745 Essington Cir Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	913	$1,250	$1.37	4d	1	0.63mi
1215 Robbins Run Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,295	$1.23	24d	1	0.63mi
551 Shelbourne Ln Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,935	$1.76	4d	13	0.65mi
102 Crystal Point Dr Dayton, OH	2.0–3.0	2.0	1154	$1,275	$1.10	24d	1	0.66mi
1244 Robbins Run Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,650	$1.61	15d	1	0.72mi
1250 Robbins Run Ct Washington Township, OH	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,400	$1.37	24d	1	0.73mi
8324 Millwheel Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	576	$1,130	$1.96	4d	5	0.76mi
7677 Tours Ln Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	24d	1	0.80mi
853 Peach Hill Dr Washington Township, OH	2.0	1.5	950	$1,650	$1.74	24d	1	0.94mi
7385 Yankee St Washington Township, OH	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,695	$1.21	15d	1	1.17mi
74 W Franklin St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1030	$1,365	$1.33	15d	9	1.18mi
1936 Washington West Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1491	$1,750	$1.17	4d	1	1.25mi
1570 Spinnaker Way Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,515	$1.54	4d	5	1.30mi
11 Bradstreet Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$1,099	$1.16	15d	4	1.38mi
117 Maple Ave Washington Township, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	4d	6	1.41mi
30 Poinciana Dr Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	20d	1	1.43mi
30 Poinciana Dr #6 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.43mi
30 Poinciana Dr #6 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	22d	1	1.43mi
148 Mallard Glen Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,400	$1.42	4d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    status Active
16. 2026-03-27
    price $154,000
17. 2026-03-16
    historical ActiveUnderContract
18. 2026-03-07
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-05
    price $154,900
20. 2026-01-29
    price $155,000
21. 2026-01-09
    listed $160,000 Active
22. 2024-10-16
    soldstatus $150,000
23. 2018-08-10
    soldstatus $41,000
24. 2015-03-09
    historical
25. 2014-09-09
    listed $59,900
26. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus $26,000 Closed 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    BIDDING OPEN TO INVESTORS! LARGE 2 Bed Townhouse in Quiet Cul de Sac. HUD Case #411-453640.FHA Insured & 203K eligible. CALL Today for A Private Showing!! A HUD home is a 1-to-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD as a result of a foreclosure action. HUD becomes the property owner and offers it for sale. You must show ability to pay for the property via a pre-approval letter from a qualified lender or proof of funds to bid. HUD homes are sold through licensed realtors only via an online sealed bid process. Once your bid has been accepted by HUD you have 15 days to have a whole house inspection performed. HUD Properties are sold as is. Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed and subject to change. Generally, there are no property disclosures. Buyer Must Rely On Own Inspections

27. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus $26,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    BIDDING OPEN TO INVESTORS! LARGE 2 Bed Townhouse in Quiet Cul de Sac. HUD Case #411-453640.FHA Insured & 203K eligible. CALL Today for A Private Showing!! A HUD home is a 1-to-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD as a result of a foreclosure action. HUD becomes the property owner and offers it for sale. You must show ability to pay for the property via a pre-approval letter from a qualified lender or proof of funds to bid. HUD homes are sold through licensed realtors only via an online sealed bid process. Once your bid has been accepted by HUD you have 15 days to have a whole house inspection performed. HUD Properties are sold as is. Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed and subject to change. Generally, there are no property disclosures. Buyer Must Rely On Own Inspections

28. 2013-01-16
    historical 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    BIDDING OPEN TO INVESTORS! LARGE 2 Bed Townhouse in Quiet Cul de Sac. HUD Case #411-453640.FHA Insured & 203K eligible. CALL Today for A Private Showing!! A HUD home is a 1-to-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD as a result of a foreclosure action. HUD becomes the property owner and offers it for sale. You must show ability to pay for the property via a pre-approval letter from a qualified lender or proof of funds to bid. HUD homes are sold through licensed realtors only via an online sealed bid process. Once your bid has been accepted by HUD you have 15 days to have a whole house inspection performed. HUD Properties are sold as is. Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed and subject to change. Generally, there are no property disclosures. Buyer Must Rely On Own Inspections

29. 2012-10-17
    listed $42,000 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    BIDDING OPEN TO INVESTORS! LARGE 2 Bed Townhouse in Quiet Cul de Sac. HUD Case #411-453640.FHA Insured & 203K eligible. CALL Today for A Private Showing!! A HUD home is a 1-to-4 unit residential property acquired by HUD as a result of a foreclosure action. HUD becomes the property owner and offers it for sale. You must show ability to pay for the property via a pre-approval letter from a qualified lender or proof of funds to bid. HUD homes are sold through licensed realtors only via an online sealed bid process. Once your bid has been accepted by HUD you have 15 days to have a whole house inspection performed. HUD Properties are sold as is. Information has not been verified, is not guaranteed and subject to change. Generally, there are no property disclosures. Buyer Must Rely On Own Inspections

30. 2005-10-04
    soldstatus $70,000
31. 1997-12-16
    soldstatus $48,000
32. 1994-07-29
    soldstatus $48,000
33. 1986-09-04
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,265 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,334 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 3.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$2,265
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$3,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$853
• After-tax cash flow: $-159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,553
• Household income: $89,592
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -167.27%
• Current HPI: 254.7793
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+286.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $154,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $154,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $155,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $160,000 Dayton MLS
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-09 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2014-09-09 Listed $59,900 Dayton MLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (MLS) $26,000 Dayton MLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (MLS) $26,000 Dayton MLS
• 2013-01-16 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2012-10-17 Listed $42,000 Dayton MLS
• 2005-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1994-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1986-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,265 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.