62181 Arlington Cir #4 · South Lyon, MI 48178

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Condo · 93 Days on market

Built 2001 $88/sqft · 15% below area Est $177k · 15% under $475/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ LOVELY RANCH IN PHASE 5 W/ NEUTRAL DECOR. SKYLIGHT IN THE KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY, CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AREA, LOWER LEVEL OFFERS FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE, FULL BATH, LARGE BEDROOM WITH WALKIN CLOSET. PLENTY OF STORAGE PRIVATE COURTYARD IN THE FRONT. HOA COVERS ROOF, OUTDOOR MAINTENANCE, TRASH, WATER, WATER HEATER, FURNACE, CLUBHOUSE AND POOL. WALK TO TOWN, WALKING AND BIKE TRAILS, PRIVATE ENTRY SPRINKLERS. DON'T MISS OUT!!!!

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Private entry
• Private courtyard

Tags

• SKYLIGHT IN THE KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY AREA
• LOWER LEVEL FAMILY ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE COURTYARD
• PRIVATE ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($870/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.6% in South Lyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#46 in MI, #953 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• South Lyon Community Schools (suburban): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #74 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $150k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.97%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,812
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-19,311
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,393
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48178

• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$475
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $124	+0% $72	+5% $21	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-10	+0% $72	+5% $155	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $111	base $72	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
663 Jamie Vis South Lyon, MI	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,749	$1.76	0d	1	0.18mi
671 E Crest Ln South Lyon, MI	3.0	1.5	1589	$2,250	$1.42	18d	1	0.50mi
425 Donovan St South Lyon, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0	1027	$1,500	$1.46	0d	1	0.98mi
113 W Liberty St Unit 1 South Lyon, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,700	$1.62	19d	1	1.13mi
200 Brookwood Dr South Lyon, MI	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,672	$1.40	4d	3	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $475 · $5,700/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashgaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 537-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $155,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    55+ LOVELY RANCH IN PHASE 5 W/ NEUTRAL DECOR. SKYLIGHT IN THE KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY, CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AREA, LOWER LEVEL OFFERS FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE, FULL BATH, LARGE BEDROOM WITH WALKIN CLOSET. PLENTY OF STORAGE PRIVATE COURTYARD IN THE FRONT. HOA COVERS ROOF, OUTDOOR MAINTENANCE, TRASH, WATER, WATER HEATER, FURNACE, CLUBHOUSE AND POOL. WALK TO TOWN, WALKING AND BIKE TRAILS, PRIVATE ENTRY SPRINKLERS. DON'T MISS OUT!!!!

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $155,000 Active 471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (471 chars)

    55+ LOVELY RANCH IN PHASE 5 W/ NEUTRAL DECOR. SKYLIGHT IN THE KITCHEN APPLIANCES STAY, CATHEDRAL CEILING IN LIVING ROOM, 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY AREA, LOWER LEVEL OFFERS FAMILY ROOM WITH GAS FIREPLACE, FULL BATH, LARGE BEDROOM WITH WALKIN CLOSET. PLENTY OF STORAGE PRIVATE COURTYARD IN THE FRONT. HOA COVERS ROOF, OUTDOOR MAINTENANCE, TRASH, WATER, WATER HEATER, FURNACE, CLUBHOUSE AND POOL. WALK TO TOWN, WALKING AND BIKE TRAILS, PRIVATE ENTRY SPRINKLERS. DON'T MISS OUT!!!!

19. 2015-04-24
    soldstatus $84,000
20. 2015-04-24
    soldstatus $84,000
21. 2015-03-14
    historical
22. 2015-01-26
    listed $87,500
23. 2015-01-26
    listed $87,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$5,700
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Lyon Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632250
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,419
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2372
• State rank: #74 of 540 in MI

Livability — South Lyon

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #953

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lyon, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 37,789
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 37,789
• Household income: $131,558
• Rent vs Own: 8.8% rent · 91.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 141.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.96%
• Current HPI: 197.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+77.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $155,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-20 Listed $155,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-04-24 Sold (MLS) $84,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-04-24 Sold (MLS) $84,000 REALCOMP
• 2015-03-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-26 Listed $87,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-01-26 Listed $87,500 REALCOMP