1609 Lakeview Terrace Dr · South Jacksonville, IL 62650

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,435 sqft · Other · 50 Days on market

Built 1955 6,050 sqft lot $49/sqft · 40% below area Est $117k · 40% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCAL INVESTOR STARTING TO SELL HIS RENTALS. UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY. THIS RANCH SITS IN A GOOD SOUTH LOCATION - A SHORT WALK TO NICHOLAS PARK AND FACTORS IN SOUTH JACKSONVILLE SCHOOL PRICED AT $78,500. IT IS SELLING "AS IS". NO QUESTION IT NEEDS A FACELIFT. BUT THE SQUARE FOOTAGE IS THERE TO SUPPORT EVERY PENNY YOU SPEND. 3 BEDS 2 BATHS - NO GARAGE - PRICED AT $78,500.. .. SELLER IS OFFERING A PACKAGE DEAL. 3 HOUSES FOR $185,000 - PACKAGE BEING OFFERED INCLUDES - 1609 LAKEVIEW TERRACE, 835 S, FAYETTE & 846 W. RAILROAD. ALL 3 ARE CURRENTLY RENTED. 48 NOTIFICATION TO VIEW THE HOMES. SELLER IS SELLING ALL "AS iS" ONCE ONE OF THE HOME SELLS INDIVIDUALLY THE BUY 3 FO

Key facts

• Good south location
• 6,050 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• GOOD SOUTH LOCATION
• SHORT WALK TO NICHOLAS PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1955
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (vinyl flooring)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level (vinyl flooring, no egress window); Additional bedroom areas on upper, lower, basement and another additional level noted
• Flooring: Carpet in multiple rooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen and one bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for heating/cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#331 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Jacksonville Elem School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 311 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.02%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,482
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -40.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $17,873
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $53,370
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62650

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $711

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $477	+0% $458	+5% $438	+10% $418
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $407	+0% $458	+5% $509	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $475	base $458	+0.5pp $440	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $70,000 751-char remark
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $78,500 Active 751-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,714
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $4,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — South Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #6557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Jacksonville, IL
• Population (ZIP): 24,318

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.33%
• Current HPI: 126.5712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $70,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $78,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.