2082 Fm-1566 · Celeste, TX 75423

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1970 0.78 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully Renovated Country Home on 0.77 Acres in Celeste, Texas Enjoy peaceful country living in this beautifully renovated all-electric 3-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame home. Situated on approximately 0.77 acres and surrounded by mature trees, this property offers the perfect blend of modern updates and rural charm. The updated kitchen features new stainless-steel appliances, including a range, microwave, dishwasher, and dual-basin stainless-steel sink. Attractive tile backsplash, tile flooring, and durable Corian countertops create a stylish and functional cooking space. The bathroom has been completely refreshed with a new tiled tub enclosure and modern finishes. All three bedrooms fea

Key facts

• Detached shop
• Updated kitchen
• Outdoor living

Tags

• RENOVATED COUNTRY HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DETACHED SHOP
• MATURE TREES
• OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2; 2-car garage (approximately 25' wide x 30' long); Gravel on-site parking; 2-car double doors
• Utilities: Co-op water; Private sewer / septic; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Preowned (built in 1970); Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding and wood; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Barbed wire and chain link fencing; Few trees; Grassed vegetation; No easements; Other structures: garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Corian-type countertops; Dual sinks; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level (13 x 10); Second bedroom on main level (10 x 13); Third bedroom on main level (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (5 x 9) with built-in cabinets, Corian-type countertop, and linen closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; One living area; One dining area; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry area in kitchen / utility in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.0% in Celeste — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,095 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wolfe City ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #254 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wolfe City El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 347 students, 62% FRL); Wolfe City Middle (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 152 students, 56% FRL); Wolfe City H S (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 221 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,500 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $100,465
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $302,021
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75423

• Home prices YoY: 31.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,142/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $177,102

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-68	+0% $-124	+5% $-180	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-242	-5% $-183	+0% $-124	+5% $-65	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-73	base $-124	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2082 FM 1566 W Celeste, TX	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,495	$1.46	21d	1	0.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,142 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,500/yr (+$125/mo · 70.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,142
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,004
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wolfe City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846350
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,926
• Composite: 38.98/100
• National rank: #4074
• State rank: #254 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celeste

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1095
• US rank: #19367

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,088
• Population (ZIP): 3,088

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 71.87%
• Current HPI: 301.3118
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12337.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-01 Rental Removed $1,495 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,495 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed for Rent $1,600 NTREIS
• 2009-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,142 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.