211 Pioneer Cir · Midland, TX 79705

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,184 sqft lot $210/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! This is a perfect move in home. Like new, only 5 years old. Comes with new Refrigerator and new washer and dryer, plus stove!. Backyard has grass and pavers, cute to enjoy. This cutie is about one half blook from the new Lone Star Trails school. but not on the main street so you will miss the school traffic!

Key facts

• New stove
• New washer and dryer
• Backyard has pavers

Tags

• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW STOVE
• BACKYARD HAS GRASS
• BACKYARD HAS PAVERS
• NOT ON MAIN STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-720/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rita El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 596 students, 45% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,061 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,357
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -1.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-53,355
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,785
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,910/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $288,401

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $109	-5% $25	+0% $-60	+5% $-145	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-159	+0% $-60	+5% $39	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $16	base $-60	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	0.30mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	0.30mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.39mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	23d	1	0.41mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.42mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	0.42mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	23d	1	0.53mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	0.55mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.55mi
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.56mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	0.67mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	23d	1	0.69mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	0.70mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.75mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.76mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	0.79mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	0.92mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.93mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.95mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	23d	1	0.97mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.97mi
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	23d	1	0.98mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	1.00mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	23d	1	1.01mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	1.05mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	23d	1	1.08mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	1.09mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	45d	1	1.10mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.11mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	23d	1	1.11mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	15d	1	1.12mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	1.14mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.14mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.15mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	45d	1	1.15mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	23d	1	1.15mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	45d	1	1.17mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	15d	1	1.17mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	23d	1	1.18mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Wow! This is a perfect move in home. Like new, only 5 years old. Comes with new Refrigerator and new washer and dryer, plus stove!. Backyard has grass and pavers, cute to enjoy. This cutie is about one half blook from the new Lone Star Trails school. but not on the main street so you will miss the school traffic!

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $299,000 Active 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   Wow! This is a perfect move in home. Like new, only 5 years old. Comes with new Refrigerator and new washer and dryer, plus stove!. Backyard has grass and pavers, cute to enjoy. This cutie is about one half blook from the new Lone Star Trails school. but not on the main street so you will miss the school traffic!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,910 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,562/yr (+$130/mo · 40.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,910
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,403
• After-tax cash flow: $683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and neutral decor. Minor exterior painting and carpet replacement would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up the interior and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — PBBOR
• 2026-04-06 Listed $299,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,910 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.