104 Lawson Dr · Birmingham, AL 35215

$104,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1956 0.30 ac lot $100/sqft · at area comps Est $108k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity. This property has a section 8 tenant paying 825.00 per month. Please do not disturb tenant.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Eat in kitchen area
• Smooth ceilings

Tags

• SINGLE STORY RANCH STYLE
• EAT IN KITCHEN AREA
• SMOOTH CEILINGS
• HARDWOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• VINYL FLOORING
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.3 acre; Subdivision: CENTER POINT ACRES

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry; 2 garage spaces (main level); Driveway parking; 1 carport space
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Internet service available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Existing home; Single-story layout (all principal rooms listed on main level); Siding (wood) exterior
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; No deck, patio, pool, or garden listed; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Two additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Vinyl floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Smooth ceilings; No additional built-in interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martha Gaskins K5 (math 0% / reading 15%, grade F, #598 of 627 statewide, top 96%, 509 students, 87% FRL); Huffman High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 1,147 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,419
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -3.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Hearn Cir	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,026 (-2%)	8mo	$85,000	$83	87
408 Ford Way	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+2%)	2mo	$27,500	$26	83
205 Tucker Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-4%)	5mo	$85,000	$84	83
221 Lawson Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+5%)	8mo	$78,500	$71	82
9828 Red Mill Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+5%)	8mo	$99,900	$90	80
312 Pine St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+3%)	1mo	$60,000	$56	79
9817 Virginianna Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	989 (-6%)	4mo	$125,000	$126	70
9809 Maple Ln	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+13%)	3mo	$130,000	$109	68
252 Westwood Dr	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+7%)	6mo	$93,000	$83	67
201 Carol Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,096 (+4%)	2mo	$154,000	$141	66
405 Sunbrook Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+6%)	2mo	$148,000	$132	62
252 Meadowdale Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0	920 (-12%)	6mo	$89,000	$97	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $556
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $23,228
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,208/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $334	-5% $305	+0% $275	+5% $245	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $178	-5% $226	+0% $275	+5% $323	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $328	-0.5pp $302	base $275	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Lawson Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1102	$1,325	$1.20	25d	1	0.10mi
9844 Greenlee Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1046	$950	$0.91	45d	1	0.12mi
204 McCormick Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	880	$980	$1.11	5d	1	0.14mi
209 Tucker Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,100	$1.05	45d	1	0.19mi
426 Buckingham Cir Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,013	$0.94	45d	1	0.27mi
252 Meadowdale Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	920	$995	$1.08	45d	1	0.32mi
252 Westwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1124	$1,400	$1.25	3d	1	0.34mi
316 Pine St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,100	$0.89	45d	1	0.36mi
201 Rose Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	972	$1,100	$1.13	18d	1	0.52mi
957 Hickory Cir Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,195	$0.88	5d	1	0.65mi
216 Sanford Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.67mi
628 Annie Laura Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	844	$1,195	$1.42	45d	1	0.69mi
529 Robison Dr Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	960	$960	$1.00	23d	1	0.80mi
208 Sam Pate Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	988	$1,385	$1.40	3d	1	0.82mi
945 Elizabeth Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,125	$0.92	5d	1	0.88mi
848 Old Trail Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	930	$925	$0.99	25d	1	0.88mi
932 Five Mile Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,175	$0.98	21d	1	0.91mi
832 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,225	$1.00	25d	1	0.99mi
241 Mamie Ln Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,495	$1.20	5d	1	1.01mi
912 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,100	$0.93	45d	1	1.02mi
818 Sunset Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	992	$1,000	$1.01	45d	1	1.02mi
603 Camp Ct Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	45d	1	1.04mi
8917 Roebuck Blvd Apt 11 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	880	$725	$0.82	18d	1	1.04mi
940 Meadowbrook Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	45d	1	1.06mi
46 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1178	$1,450	$1.23	45d	1	1.08mi
40 Sunscape Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,555	$1.21	3d	1	1.10mi
726 Orchard Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,095	$0.98	45d	1	1.20mi
9228 Brookhurst Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1146	$999	$0.87	45d	1	1.22mi
217 Killough Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,200	$0.99	16d	1	1.25mi
1112 Violet Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,600	$1.13	13d	1	1.39mi
520 Camellia Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,100	$1.04	5d	1	1.41mi
736 Gene Reed Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,220	$0.90	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $104,900 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $109,900 Active 994-char remark
16. 2021-12-07
    soldstatus $89,900
17. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus $89,900 Sold 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Investment opportunity. This property has a section 8 tenant paying 825.00 per month. Please do not disturb tenant.

18. 2021-11-16
    historical Contingent 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Investment opportunity. This property has a section 8 tenant paying 825.00 per month. Please do not disturb tenant.

19. 2021-11-03
    listed $89,900 Active 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    Investment opportunity. This property has a section 8 tenant paying 825.00 per month. Please do not disturb tenant.

20. 2018-05-18
    soldstatus $84,120
21. 2018-05-17
    soldstatus $84,900

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Investment property fully remodeled with Section 8 tenant paying $825/month.

22. 2018-05-17
    listed $84,900

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Investment property fully remodeled with Section 8 tenant paying $825/month.

23. 2017-09-26
    soldstatus $52,000
24. 2007-10-26
    soldstatus $56,000
25. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $43,514

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,208
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $1,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $2,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+141.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $104,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $109,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-01 Sold (MLS) $89,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-11-16 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-11-03 Listed $89,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $84,120 Public Records
• 2018-05-17 Listed $84,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-05-17 Sold (MLS) $84,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,514 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,208 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.