327 Arlington Dr · Jones Mills, AR 71913

$237,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1970 0.43 ac lot Est $256k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the gated community of Diamondhead. Recent updates include a new kitchen, flooring, paint, and HVAC, with a roof less than 5 years old—giving buyers peace of mind on the big-ticket items. Flexible layout with a lower-level primary suite featuring a walk-in closet and a walk-out sliding glass door that brings in natural light and provides direct access to the backyard. Upstairs, the great room features vaulted ceilings and an open feel, making the main living space bright and inviting. Step out to a large deck overlooking a fenced, tree-lined yard—ideal for relaxing or entertaining with added privacy. Conveniently located near the main en

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large deck
• New kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW KITCHEN
• LOWER-LEVEL PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WALK-OUT SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric service (Entergy)
• Home design: Single-family property; Approximately 1,440 square feet
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Rock and frame exterior; Metal/vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Paved road access; Inside city limits; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Luxury vinyl flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Malvern School District (town): math 21% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #207 of 238 in AR (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malvern Elementary School (math 28% / reading 20%, grade F, #359 of 454 statewide, top 79%, 701 students, 77% FRL); Malvern Junior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #170 of 201 statewide, top 86%, 299 students, 75% FRL); Malvern High School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 575 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4 units permitted in Hot Spring County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,201/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1442% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hot Spring County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $238k implies a 580% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,125 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,320
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Stonebriar Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+6%)	4mo	$304,500	$200	57
130 Firestone Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-7%)	14mo	$300,700	$224	53
115 Morningside Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,530 (+6%)	17mo	$187,000	$122	52
141 Seaburn Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$178	51
238 Springbrook	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,449 (+1%)	22mo	$249,000	$172	51
220 Chadwood St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+9%)	5mo	$255,000	$162	47
260 Springbrook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	21mo	$277,000	$214	37
128 Burning Tree Ct	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (-15%)	4mo	$215,000	$176	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,614
• Equity at exit: $35,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $21,090
• Equity at exit: $20,569

Cash invested: $66,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,568/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $237,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $177	+0% $95	+5% $13	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $8	+0% $95	+5% $182	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $155	base $95	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,475
• Closing costs: $7,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Pebble Beach Pl Unit 1B Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.5	1550	$3,000	$1.94	45d	1	1.41mi
167 Pebble Beach Pl Unit 1C Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.5	1550	$3,000	$1.94	45d	1	1.41mi
105 Parkshores Rd Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	931	$1,300	$1.40	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $237,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $237,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $237,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $237,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $237,900 Price Change 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $237,900 Price Change 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $237,900 Price Change 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $237,900 Price Change 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $244,900 New Listing
18. 2025-08-07
    price $145,900
19. 2025-07-24
    price $149,900
20. 2025-06-13
    price $154,900
21. 2025-05-23
    price $159,000
22. 1993-07-30
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,326
• − Property taxes: −$3,568
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,113
• − Management: −$2,113
• − Depreciation: −$6,921
• Taxable loss: −$2,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$676
• After-tax cash flow: $1,815/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malvern School District
• NCES district ID: 0509240
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $35,370
• Composite: 17.76/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #207 of 238 in AR

Livability — Jones Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Hot Spring County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,464 people
• By 2030: 34,659 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 34,486 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 33,419 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 28,702 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 21,415 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hot Spring

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.9% · R 75.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+599.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $244,900 CARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $145,900 HSBOR
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $149,900 HSBOR
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $154,900 HSBOR
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $159,000 HSBOR
• 1993-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $423 · -17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.