1148 Old Nails Creek Rd · Giddings, TX 78942

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 942 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1962 0.60 ac lot $106/sqft · 36% below area Est $155k · 36% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity in Giddings! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a lot of over half an acre and includes a flexible room that could serve as a dining area, office, or potential second bedroom. A spacious 24’ x 30’ garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or workshop space. The home is in need of repair and is being sold as-is, making it a strong option for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to personalize a property. The backyard is fully fenced, offering a nice outdoor space within the generously sized lot. An additional neighboring lot, approximately 0.144 acres, is also available for purchase under a separate listing, creating potential for expansion or an additional investment opportunity. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, lot size, utilities, restrictions, and zoning.

Key facts

• Flexible room
• Generously sized lot
• Spacious garage

Tags

• FLEXIBLE ROOM
• SPACIOUS GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• ADDITIONAL NEIGHBORING LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.5% in Giddings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Giddings ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #270 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.69%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,207
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -35.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
875 E Brenham St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (+1)	875 (-7%)	3mo	$150,000	$171	56
713 N Polk St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (+1)	811 (-14%)	11mo	$179,000	$221	51
375 N Knox Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (+1)	896 (-5%)	16mo	$100,000	$112	46
569 N Chambers St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,002 (+6%)	20mo	$229,000	$229	46
353 E Houston St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (+1)	821 (-13%)	14mo	$150,000	$183	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,300
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $13,673
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78942

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $842/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    price $99,900 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $125,000 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Opportunity in Giddings! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a lot of over half an acre and includes a flexible room that could serve as a dining area, office, or potential second bedroom. A spacious 24’ x 30’ garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or workshop space. The home is in need of repair and is being sold as-is, making it a strong option for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to personalize a property. The backyard is fully fenced, offering a nice outdoor space within the generously sized lot. An additional neighboring lot, approximately 0.144 acres, is also available for purchase under a separate listing, creating potential for expansion or an additional investment opportunity. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, lot size, utilities, restrictions, and zoning.

16. 2026-02-26
    listed $130,000 Active 831-char remark

    Show marketing remark (831 chars)

    Opportunity in Giddings! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a lot of over half an acre and includes a flexible room that could serve as a dining area, office, or potential second bedroom. A spacious 24’ x 30’ garage provides ample room for vehicles, storage, or workshop space. The home is in need of repair and is being sold as-is, making it a strong option for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to personalize a property. The backyard is fully fenced, offering a nice outdoor space within the generously sized lot. An additional neighboring lot, approximately 0.144 acres, is also available for purchase under a separate listing, creating potential for expansion or an additional investment opportunity. Buyer to verify all information, including square footage, lot size, utilities, restrictions, and zoning.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $842 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$986/yr (+$82/mo · 117.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$842
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,019
• − Management: −$1,019
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$205
• After-tax cash flow: $2,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Giddings ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820640
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,580
• Composite: 38.32/100
• National rank: #4226
• State rank: #270 of 826 in TX

Livability — Giddings

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #13837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Giddings, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,858

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,796 people
• By 2030: 18,082 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 18,377 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 17,950 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 16,005 · -10.1%
• By 2100: 13,413 · -24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.5% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+55.7 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+46.3 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.66%
• Current HPI: 205.1633
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $125,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $130,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2014): $842 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.