2151 E Pacheco Blvd #78 · Los Banos, CA 93635

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 164 Days on market

Built 2000 $157/sqft · 13% below area Est $127k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained mobile home in Los Banos most desirable mobile park. Covered porch with sitting area and covered car port. Walking distance to shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Covered car port
• Sitting area

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• SITTING AREA
• COVERED CAR PORT
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $737 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.4% in Los Banos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#270 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Los Banos Unified (town): math 3% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #503 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.70%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,092
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -13.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #53	0.00mi	2/2.0	720 (+3%)	21mo	$108,000	$150	74
2151 Pacheco Blvd #13	0.22mi	2/1.0	720 (+3%)	23mo	$43,000	$60	66
2151 E Pacheco Blvd #54	0.22mi	2/1.0	732 (+5%)	20mo	$105,000	$143	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $36,087
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $122,698
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93635

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $737

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $7,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,809
• After-tax cash flow: $7,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Banos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622740
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $48,783
• Composite: 9.04/100
• National rank: #9875
• State rank: #503 of 517 in CA

Livability — Los Banos

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #9141

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Los Banos, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 50,149
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,149
• Household income: $67,129
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 20% Two or more races 12% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -357.30%
• Current HPI: 217.6528
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.53%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $186 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.