7610 Carmil Ct · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40291

$270,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Built 1974 9,130 sqft lot Est $394k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four bedroom, 2 full bathroom home on a large corner lot with fenced in back yard. Home has a formal dining room, eat in kitchen, and attached 2 car garage. Home is being sold as is: proof of funds/ pre-approval with offer. Sq ft and utilities to be verified by buyer. Please read agent notes!

Key facts

• Beautiful deck
• Private backyard
• Peaceful cul-de-sac

Tags

• PEACEFUL CUL-DE-SAC
• SPACIOUS BASEMENT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• BEAUTIFUL DECK
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: GAINSBOROUGH
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit
• Home design: Single family residence; 3 stories; Built in 1974
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing; Corner lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Lot dimensions approximately 22 x 25 x 22 x 27

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining room on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the second floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor; One bedroom on the third floor; No first-floor or basement bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Full bathrooms located on the third floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; 7 closets; 9 rooms on main floor count (11 rooms total)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement; First-floor laundry not available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($132/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.0%/yr); 291 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $270k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,253 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,108
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7414 Spring House Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0	2,341 (+0%)	3mo	$306,000	$131	79
8411 Happiness Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,381 (+2%)	4mo	$323,000	$136	76
8001 Mary Sue Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,246 (-4%)	5mo	$315,000	$140	76
8403 Old Boundary Rd	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-6%)	6mo	$300,000	$136	61
7106 Mckenna Ct	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,390 (+2%)	4mo	$265,000	$111	58
7308 Jacks Lndg	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	1mo	$344,900	$171	49
7305 Jacks Lndg	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	1mo	$339,900	$169	48
8702 Mckenna Way	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,160 (-7%)	5mo	$270,000	$125	48
Lot 14 Farmgate Crossings	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	2mo	$344,900	$171	47
8201 Jacks Hidden Cv	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	3mo	$347,400	$172	46
7204 Jacks Lndg	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	6mo	$339,900	$169	46
Lot 4 Farmgate Crossings	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-14%)	5mo	$339,900	$169	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-30,884
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $29,388
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40291

• Rents YoY: 15.0%
• Active inventory: 291
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,355/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,289

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8509 Gainsborough Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,130	$1.21	19d	1	0.10mi
8217 Zelma Fields Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1644	$1,795	$1.09	23d	1	0.44mi
7017 Field View Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2600	$2,330	$0.90	2d	1	0.65mi
8001 Zelma Fields Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	2422	$1,900	$0.78	23d	1	0.67mi
9041 Black Powder Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,799	$1.09	23d	1	1.12mi
8116 Cedar Crest Ln Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,300	$1.27	23d	1	1.14mi
6306 Labor Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1880	$1,999	$1.06	15d	1	1.36mi
8909 Gentlewind Way Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	2509	$2,600	$1.04	10d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $270,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $270,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $280,000 Pending 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 689-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,355 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,355 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$3,355
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$4,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $1,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,222
• Household income: $81,267
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 790.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -279.15%
• Current HPI: 218.0784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.96%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $280,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-08-14 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-05-07 Price Changed $287,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-05-07 Listed $287,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-03-11 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-01-24 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-12-12 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-12-12 Price Changed $149,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-12-12 Price Changed $159,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-10-26 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-10-17 Listed $164,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2003-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-10 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2003-09-25 Listed $139,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,355 · +49.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.