1789 Saxony Ln · Nassau Bay, TX 77058

$244,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,122 sqft · Townhouse · 75 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition 1,239 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est. $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this rare 2-in-1 townhome in Nassau Bay with a brand-new whole-house AC system installed in April 2026! This spacious 2,122 sq. ft. corner-lot property has neighbors on just one side. It features a 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath main residence plus a completely separate attached studio with its own private entrance, linked only by a charming small courtyard. The suite includes a bedroom, full bath, and kitchenette—ideal for guests, a home office, or rental income. Best of all, HOA fees are just $560 per year (far lower than the $600+ monthly in most nearby communities) plus access to a community pool. Located minutes from Kemah Boardwalk, Seabrook, NASA Bypass, and I-45. Perfect for multi-generational families or anyone seeking flexible, private living space.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Small courtyard
• Private guest suite

Tags

• PRIVATE GUEST SUITE
• SEPARATE ATTACHED STUDIO
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• SMALL COURTYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• QUICK ACCESS TO NASA BYPASS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $230k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.2% in Nassau Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#470 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,637/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.02%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,128
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -4.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1888 Saxony Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-10%)	4mo	$279,000	$145	68
1613 Saxony Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,041 (-4%)	21mo	$264,900	$130	65
18209 Vinland Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-14%)	8mo	$229,900	$126	58
18725 Egret Oaks Ln	0.74mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,211 (+4%)	0mo	$355,000	$161	53
18207 Vinland Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-14%)	22mo	$275,000	$151	46
1227 Saxony Ln	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,860 (-12%)	8mo	$269,000	$145	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,692
• Equity at exit: $56,562

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $33,138
• Equity at exit: $57,244

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $429	+0% $344	+5% $259	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $240	+0% $344	+5% $448	+10% $552
Rate	-1.0pp $467	-0.5pp $406	base $344	+0.5pp $281	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18107 Point Lookout Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,370	$1.67	44d	1	0.09mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 18134 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,480	$1.74	44d	1	0.10mi
18101 Point Lookout Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,487	$1.75	3d	1	0.10mi
1810 San Sebastian Ln Unit 1521758P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2325	$4,669	$2.01	2d	1	0.19mi
1315 E NASA Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1214	$1,924	$1.58	2d	37	0.55mi
1235 E Nasa Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1252	$3,059	$2.44	2d	31	0.61mi
1110 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1143	$1,809	$1.58	2d	76	0.82mi
200 Water St Webster, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1094	$2,264	$2.07	2d	38	1.16mi
2200 Beacon Cir League City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1127	$3,785	$3.36	2d	25	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,700 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,700 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,700 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,700 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,700 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $249,700 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this rare 2-in-1 townhome in Nassau Bay with a brand-new whole-house AC system installed in April 2026! This spacious 2,122 sq. ft. corner-lot property has neighbors on just one side. It features a 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath main residence plus a completely separate attached studio with its own private entrance, linked only by a charming small courtyard. The suite includes a bedroom, full bath, and kitchenette—ideal for guests, a home office, or rental income. Best of all, HOA fees are just $560 per year (far lower than the $600+ monthly in most nearby communities) plus access to a community pool. Located minutes from Kemah Boardwalk, Seabrook, NASA Bypass, and I-45. Perfect for multi-generational families or anyone seeking flexible, private living space.

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $265,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Discover this rare 2-in-1 townhome in Nassau Bay with a brand-new whole-house AC system installed in April 2026! This spacious 2,122 sq. ft. corner-lot property has neighbors on just one side. It features a 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath main residence plus a completely separate attached studio with its own private entrance, linked only by a charming small courtyard. The suite includes a bedroom, full bath, and kitchenette—ideal for guests, a home office, or rental income. Best of all, HOA fees are just $560 per year (far lower than the $600+ monthly in most nearby communities) plus access to a community pool. Located minutes from Kemah Boardwalk, Seabrook, NASA Bypass, and I-45. Perfect for multi-generational families or anyone seeking flexible, private living space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable income: $280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$67
• After-tax cash flow: $4,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-in-1 townhome in Nassau Bay is in good condition with a new AC system and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a spacious layout and is perfect for guests, a home office, or rental income.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both replace light fixtures — modernizes the home and improves curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both replace light fixtures — modernizes the home and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nassau Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #9466

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nassau Bay, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $249,700 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $265,000 HARMLS