🏷️ Likely Rental
651 Bamboo Ln · Blain, PA
Flood risk 8/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 1.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +7.8/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +6.3/10.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +1.9/10.0
- 1% rule +1.5/10.0
$240,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This is truly one of a kind and only a few will appreciate this setting as the hidden gem it is. Just Imagine stepping back in time and enjoying the simple things in life- yes it has running water and sewer. The property also offers a large bank barn, summer kitchen or art studio or maybe even rent out the building for an Air B and B. Three bedrooms, two full baths, part of the home with the addition has two mini split units. You will enjoy every night watching the stars off of the deck with family and friends. Home sits back a long private road and surrounded by farmland. No Government financing on this property only a local bank will see the beauty in this homestead. Property was tenant occupied a year ago and internet does exist for those who still need to connect with the rest of the world. Please make sure you are pre-approved before setting up a showing
Key facts
- Private road
- Art studio
- Deck
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (24.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (34.5% below list).
- Recommended offer: $157k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,331 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
- West Perry SD (rural): math 37% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #189 of 539 in PA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Blain El Sch (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 263 students, 60% FRL); West Perry Ms (math 23% / reading 61%, grade D-, #221 of 512 statewide, top 45%, 496 students, 52% FRL); West Perry Shs (math 72% / reading 87%, grade A-, #19 of 437 statewide, top 4%, 686 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
- Perry County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.65% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.98%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.69%
- DSCR
- 0.79
- GRM
- 12.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $544,891
- List price
- $240,000
- Delta
- -55.95%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 2.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
2.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 0.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.03×
- Total profit
- $1,778
- Equity at exit
- $101,386
- IRR
- 4.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.65×
- Total profit
- $43,494
- Equity at exit
- $151,349
Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 17047
- Home prices YoY
- 1.4%
- Active inventory
- 3
- Price-to-rent
- 12.7×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,572 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,259
- Tax from tax record
- −$146 /mo · $1,748/yr
- Insurance
- −$100
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$330
- Net cashflow
- $-329
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-193 | -5% $-261 | +0% $-329 | +5% $-397 | +10% $-465 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-453 | -5% $-391 | +0% $-329 | +5% $-267 | +10% $-205 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-208 | -0.5pp $-268 | base $-329 | +0.5pp $-391 | +1.0pp $-455 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $60,000
- Closing costs
- $7,200
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-06-13statusdays on market $240,000 Pending 149 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $240,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $240,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $240,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $240,000 Active 145 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $240,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $240,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $240,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $240,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $240,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-03-21price $240,000 871-char remark
Show marketing remark (871 chars)
This is truly one of a kind and only a few will appreciate this setting as the hidden gem it is. Just Imagine stepping back in time and enjoying the simple things in life- yes it has running water and sewer. The property also offers a large bank barn, summer kitchen or art studio or maybe even rent out the building for an Air B and B. Three bedrooms, two full baths, part of the home with the addition has two mini split units. You will enjoy every night watching the stars off of the deck with family and friends. Home sits back a long private road and surrounded by farmland. No Government financing on this property only a local bank will see the beauty in this homestead. Property was tenant occupied a year ago and internet does exist for those who still need to connect with the rest of the world. Please make sure you are pre-approved before setting up a showing
-
2026-01-13$270,000 Active 871-char remark
Show marketing remark (871 chars)
This is truly one of a kind and only a few will appreciate this setting as the hidden gem it is. Just Imagine stepping back in time and enjoying the simple things in life- yes it has running water and sewer. The property also offers a large bank barn, summer kitchen or art studio or maybe even rent out the building for an Air B and B. Three bedrooms, two full baths, part of the home with the addition has two mini split units. You will enjoy every night watching the stars off of the deck with family and friends. Home sits back a long private road and surrounded by farmland. No Government financing on this property only a local bank will see the beauty in this homestead. Property was tenant occupied a year ago and internet does exist for those who still need to connect with the rest of the world. Please make sure you are pre-approved before setting up a showing
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,748 · $146/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,770 · $231/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,022/yr (+$85/mo · 58.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $18,858
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,444
- − Property taxes
- −$1,748
- − Insurance
- −$1,997
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,509
- − Management
- −$1,509
- − Depreciation
- −$6,982
- Taxable loss
- −$8,330
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,999
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,951/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- West Perry SD
- NCES district ID
- 4225740
- Math proficiency
- 37% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 60% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $55,647
- Composite
- 41.99/100
- National rank
- #3338
- State rank
- #189 of 539 in PA
Livability — Blain
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #1331
- US rank
- #16445
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 3,037
Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 44,250 people
- By 2030
- 42,862 · -3.1%
- By 2040
- 39,574 · -10.6%
- By 2050
- 36,001 · -18.6%
- By 2075
- 27,991 · -36.7%
- By 2100
- 20,936 · -52.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (94%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
- Common ancestry
- Polish 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · German/W. Germanic 9% Spanish 3%
Political lean MEDSL · Perry
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+49.3) · D 24.8% · R 74.1% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -49.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+49.3 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+38.8 2008: R+33.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 2.51%
- Current HPI
- 178.5762
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
||
| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
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Price history
-11.1% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-21 Price Changed $240,000 BRIGHT MLS
- 2026-01-13 Listed $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
Property tax history
+2.3%/yrLatest (2026): $1,748 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…