2720 Bayou Carencro Dr · Estelle, LA 70072

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2001 5,000 sqft lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in Ready Beauty with Modern Upgrades! Step into this inviting home featuring an open floor plan and soaring vaulted ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel throughout. The kitchen offers a charming bay window, stainless appliances, pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar with seating great for casual dining. The living area is enhanced by a cozy added fireplace with stylish shiplap, adding warmth and character. Recent updates include a fortified roof, new back door, and new luxury vinyl flooring in the guest bedrooms. Both bathrooms feature matching marble vanities for a polished look. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio with tile flooring overlooking a fenced backyard complete with a 10x10x10 shed. Additional highlights include an attached garage, Govee exterior lighting with app control, and a Blink camera system for added convenience and security.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Stainless appliances
• Bay window

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BAY WINDOW
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ADDED FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.6% in Estelle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Congetta Trippe Janet Elementary School (math 29% / reading 43%, grade F, #274 of 646 statewide, top 43%, 648 students, 60% FRL); Harry S Truman School (math 7% / reading 18%, grade F, #546 of 646 statewide, top 85%, 541 students, 78% FRL); John Ehret High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 265 statewide, top 64%, 1,579 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,066/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 1807% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $235k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,561 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.81%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,297
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2720 Bayou Carencro Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,208 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$190	99
2745 Bayou Lours Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,235 (+2%)	9mo	$225,000	$182	82
2733 Bayou Lours Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+4%)	10mo	$220,000	$175	75
2720 Bayou Cane Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+8%)	1mo	$224,900	$172	73
2724 Bayou Teche Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,089 (-10%)	2mo	$180,000	$165	72
4608 Bayou Des Familles Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+14%)	8mo	$240,500	$175	66
2717 Corinne Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-1%)	7mo	$225,000	$188	63
2732 Varnado St	0.54mi	3/3.0	1,260 (+4%)	5mo	$167,000	$133	60
2784 Isabelle Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-7%)	5mo	$152,000	$136	53
2772 Erin Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,148 (-5%)	11mo	$185,000	$161	51
2717 Russell Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,379 (+14%)	10mo	$165,000	$120	49
2776 Russell Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,033 (-14%)	8mo	$218,400	$211	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-36,477
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-40,318
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70072

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,954

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $154	+0% $88	+5% $21	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $6	+0% $88	+5% $169	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $148	base $88	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4613 Ames Blvd Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,350	$1.61	45d	1	0.13mi
2704 Sieglinde Ct Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1122	$1,850	$1.65	25d	1	0.23mi
2748 Erin Dr Marrero, LA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,850	$1.27	25d	1	0.55mi
2544 Jeanne St Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1158	$2,300	$1.99	25d	1	0.80mi
5219 Cross Creek Dr Marrero, LA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	45d	1	0.99mi
2417 Highland Meadows Dr Marrero, LA	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	45d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Move-in Ready Beauty with Modern Upgrades! Step into this inviting home featuring an open floor plan and soaring vaulted ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel throughout. The kitchen offers a charming bay window, stainless appliances, pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar with seating great for casual dining. The living area is enhanced by a cozy added fireplace with stylish shiplap, adding warmth and character. Recent updates include a fortified roof, new back door, and new luxury vinyl flooring in the guest bedrooms. Both bathrooms feature matching marble vanities for a polished look. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio with tile flooring overlooking a fenced backyard complete with a 10x10x10 shed. Additional highlights include an attached garage, Govee exterior lighting with app control, and a Blink camera system for added convenience and security.

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Move-in Ready Beauty with Modern Upgrades! Step into this inviting home featuring an open floor plan and soaring vaulted ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel throughout. The kitchen offers a charming bay window, stainless appliances, pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar with seating great for casual dining. The living area is enhanced by a cozy added fireplace with stylish shiplap, adding warmth and character. Recent updates include a fortified roof, new back door, and new luxury vinyl flooring in the guest bedrooms. Both bathrooms feature matching marble vanities for a polished look. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio with tile flooring overlooking a fenced backyard complete with a 10x10x10 shed. Additional highlights include an attached garage, Govee exterior lighting with app control, and a Blink camera system for added convenience and security.

3. 2026-03-30
   listed $235,000 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Move-in Ready Beauty with Modern Upgrades! Step into this inviting home featuring an open floor plan and soaring vaulted ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel throughout. The kitchen offers a charming bay window, stainless appliances, pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar with seating great for casual dining. The living area is enhanced by a cozy added fireplace with stylish shiplap, adding warmth and character. Recent updates include a fortified roof, new back door, and new luxury vinyl flooring in the guest bedrooms. Both bathrooms feature matching marble vanities for a polished look. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio with tile flooring overlooking a fenced backyard complete with a 10x10x10 shed. Additional highlights include an attached garage, Govee exterior lighting with app control, and a Blink camera system for added convenience and security.

4. 2026-03-30
   listed $235,000 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Move-in Ready Beauty with Modern Upgrades! Step into this inviting home featuring an open floor plan and soaring vaulted ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel throughout. The kitchen offers a charming bay window, stainless appliances, pantry, and a convenient breakfast bar with seating great for casual dining. The living area is enhanced by a cozy added fireplace with stylish shiplap, adding warmth and character. Recent updates include a fortified roof, new back door, and new luxury vinyl flooring in the guest bedrooms. Both bathrooms feature matching marble vanities for a polished look. Enjoy outdoor living under the covered patio with tile flooring overlooking a fenced backyard complete with a 10x10x10 shed. Additional highlights include an attached garage, Govee exterior lighting with app control, and a Blink camera system for added convenience and security.

5. 2017-09-01
   soldstatus $151,000
6. 2017-08-31
   soldstatus $151,000 Sold
7. 2017-08-02
   historical Pending Continue to Show
8. 2017-07-28
   listed $155,000 Active
9. 2017-07-27
   listed $155,000
10. 2005-12-08
    soldstatus $132,900
11. 2005-11-29
    soldstatus $132,900
12. 2005-10-22
    listed $134,900
13. 2005-10-22
    listed $134,900
14. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $109,999
15. 2003-08-01
    soldstatus $109,999
16. 2003-04-06
    listed $109,999
17. 2003-04-06
    listed $109,999
18. 2001-03-29
    soldstatus $93,900
19. 2000-12-01
    listed $93,900
20. 2000-12-01
    listed $93,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$2,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $48,421
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #7511
• State rank: #44 of 98 in LA

Livability — Estelle

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #14840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estelle, LA
• County: Jefferson Parish · 426,999 people
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 55,693
• Household income: $54,885
• Rent vs Own: 24.6% rent · 75.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1807.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 451,696 people
• By 2030: 455,451 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 458,308 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 461,031 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 476,351 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 499,377 · +10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+12.9) · D 42.5% · R 55.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.6pp toward D · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+18.4 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.87%
• Current HPI: 161.7477
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-03-30 Listed $235,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-30 Listed $235,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $151,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-31 Sold (MLS) $151,000 GSREIN
• 2017-08-02 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2017-07-28 Listed $155,000 GSREIN
• 2017-07-27 Listed $155,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $132,900 Public Records
• 2005-11-29 Sold (MLS) $132,900 GSREIN
• 2005-10-22 Listed $134,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-10-22 Listed $134,900 GSREIN
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $109,999 GSREIN
• 2003-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $109,999 Public Records
• 2003-04-06 Listed $109,999 AcadianaMLS
• 2003-04-06 Listed $109,999 GSREIN
• 2001-03-29 Sold (MLS) $93,900 GSREIN
• 2000-12-01 Listed $93,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2000-12-01 Listed $93,900 GSREIN

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.