626 W Locust St · Paris, MO 65275

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,988 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1920

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great home with solid bones for a starter fix up home or to flip! Selling as is.

Key facts

• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#298 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Paris R-II (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #208 of 324 in MO (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.57%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $21,800
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $58,528
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65275

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $5,202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $4,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris R-II
• NCES district ID: 2923530
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,226
• Composite: 30.2/100
• National rank: #6307
• State rank: #208 of 324 in MO

Livability — Paris

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #13766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,491

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,974 people
• By 2030: 7,588 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 6,815 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 6,089 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 4,812 · -39.7%
• By 2100: 3,737 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.9) · D 19.6% · R 79.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -59.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.9 2020: R+56.7 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.41%
• Current HPI: 178.3024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $55,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $508 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.