12446 Highway 412 · Alpena, AR 72611

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2008 5.00 ac lot Est $119k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Here's a 3 bedroom 2 bath 2008 Fleetwood manufacutred home with split/open floor plan situated on approximately 5 acres, m/l, mostly wooded with large deck.   Home could also be purchased with 12436 Hwy. 412, MLS #1336713 If split, there will be a shared well agreement.   All #s are approx, age & square footage per assessor.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 70 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee paid monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway (on-site parking)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Well water; Septic system available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Built with crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Patio; Outside city limits; Rolling slope; Sloped; Highway frontage; Public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Plumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Wood stove; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#244 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alpena School District (rural): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #122 of 238 in AR (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.43%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12804 Highway 412	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+12%)	20mo	$133,005	$71	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.76% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $19,877
• Equity at exit: $54,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $63,847
• Equity at exit: $82,758

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72611

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $143	+0% $100	+5% $57	+10% $14
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $52	+0% $100	+5% $148	+10% $196
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $132	base $100	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   historical
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,171
• − Management: −$1,171
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$201
• After-tax cash flow: $1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena School District
• NCES district ID: 0502280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $39,637
• Composite: 28.95/100
• National rank: #6628
• State rank: #122 of 238 in AR

Livability — Alpena

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #17958

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,783

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,014 people
• By 2030: 28,006 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 28,242 · +0.8%
• By 2050: 29,169 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 33,935 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 39,497 · +41.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.3 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Current HPI: 321.7957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $125,000 NWARMLS