229 Windmill Rd · West Seneca, NY 14218

$299,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,556 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1974 0.39 ac lot $193/sqft · 17% below area Est $360k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic West Seneca Heritage Farms brick-front ranch offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage on a deep double lot that backs to woods. A covered front porch leads into a ceramic-tiled foyer with graceful curved pillars, opening to an expansive carpeted living and dining room combination. Additional curved pillars define the transition to the eat-in kitchen, which features granite counter tops, ceramic tile flooring, a built-in oven, cooktop, dishwasher, and a wonderful solar tube that fills the space with natural light. Step down into the inviting family room, complete with Luxury Vinyl Tile, a beamed ceiling, and a gas fireplace as its focal point. Sliding glass doo

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick front ranch
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• BRICK FRONT RANCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CERAMIC TILED FOYER
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage with electricity and automatic garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale property; City street frontage; Lot roughly rectangular (75 x 225)
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Existing (previously built) home
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Partial fencing; Patio (covered and open); Porch; Shed(s) and additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Eat-in / country kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level (including primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Formal living room; Entrance foyer; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Country kitchen; Granite counters; Skylights; Leaded glass windows; Pull-down attic stairs; Programmable thermostat; Humidifier
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater; Sump pump; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $218,878 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.94%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,347
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
149 Heritage Farm Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,684 (+8%)	7mo	$334,000	$198	75
91 Marilyn Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+5%)	5mo	$345,000	$211	63
31 Christopher Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-4%)	7mo	$342,500	$230	63
70 Christopher Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,618 (+4%)	9mo	$290,000	$179	61
95 Reserve Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-9%)	2mo	$315,000	$222	59
128 Cranwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,625 (+4%)	8mo	$335,000	$206	57
96 Suburban Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	5mo	$290,000	$181	56
797 Fisher Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,480 (-5%)	8mo	$260,000	$176	54
250 Allendale Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,632 (+5%)	6mo	$290,000	$178	53
67 Vista Ct	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+8%)	7mo	$490,000	$292	49
77 East And West Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+7%)	6mo	$400,000	$240	48
5702 Berg Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,380 (-11%)	6mo	$235,000	$170	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,569
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-89,647
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,524/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,626

Max offer price $238,863

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-261	+0% $-346	+5% $-430	+10% $-515
Rent	-10% $-518	-5% $-432	+0% $-346	+5% $-259	+10% $-173
Rate	-1.0pp $-194	-0.5pp $-269	base $-346	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Orchard Park Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1517	$2,210	$1.46	24d	1	0.61mi
1130 Orchard Park Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1517	$2,015	$1.33	44d	1	0.61mi
158 South Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,500	$1.81	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 1424-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $299,900 Active 1424-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,524 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,796 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,524
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$9,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,276
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $299,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,524 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.