3026 State Route 17c · Nichols, NY 13845

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1890 0.37 ac lot $68/sqft · 35% below area Est $193k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy home with warm pellet stove, walk in pantry in kitchen, one bath has a jacuzzi tub, first floor laundry, above ground pool, enclosed porch on front of home and open porch off the kitchen. So much character and potential! Large garage with stairs to a nice room with many possibilities.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Pellet stove
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• PELLET STOVE
• WALK IN PANTRY
• JACUZZI TUB
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• OPEN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $63k (49.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (49.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#908 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Tioga Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 590 in NY (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $125k implies a 681% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,778 (49.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,798
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -35.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2999 Route 17c	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-3%)	14mo	$235,000	$132	75
127 Taylor Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,825 (-0%)	24mo	$142,140	$78	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,054
• Equity at exit: $56,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $6,790
• Equity at exit: $86,619

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13845

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,254/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,716

Max offer price $62,778

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $125,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Cozy home with warm pellet stove, walk in pantry in kitchen, one bath has a jacuzzi tub, first floor laundry, above ground pool, enclosed porch on front of home and open porch off the kitchen. So much character and potential! Large garage with stairs to a nice room with many possibilities.

16. 2025-12-20
    listed $150,000 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Cozy home with warm pellet stove, walk in pantry in kitchen, one bath has a jacuzzi tub, first floor laundry, above ground pool, enclosed porch on front of home and open porch off the kitchen. So much character and potential! Large garage with stairs to a nice room with many possibilities.

17. 2012-02-09
    soldstatus $16,000
18. 2003-06-12
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2003-06-12
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,254
• − Insurance: −$6,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628710
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,082
• Composite: 46.16/100
• National rank: #2500
• State rank: #322 of 590 in NY

Livability — Nichols

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #908
• US rank: #17764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $125,000 GBAOR
• 2025-12-20 Listed $150,000 GBAOR
• 2012-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,254 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.