538 E 37th St · Erie, PA 16504

$189,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 6,708 sqft lot Est $186k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Everything Has Been Done For You. . Turn-Key South East Erie One Floor Easy Living W/ Four Bedrooms. Recently Updated Kitchen, Appliances, Carpeting, Vinyl Flooring, Newly Installed Privacy Wood Fence In Backyard W/ Storage Shed. Close To Mercyhurst, Shopping, Restaurants. Must See! Showings Begin At Open House, Sunday 12/18, 1PM to 3PM.

Key facts

• Modernized kitchen
• Fully fenced-in yard
• Natural light

Tags

• NATURAL LIGHT
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• MODERNIZED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FULLY FENCED-IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $189,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
749 E 32nd St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,270 (-2%)	1mo	$181,000	$143	77
248 Maiden Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,349 (+4%)	0mo	$175,950	$130	73
347 E 35th St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$170	70
3913 East Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+2%)	0mo	$255,000	$193	66
909 E 37th St	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,285 (-1%)	2mo	$142,000	$111	64
3216 French St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-6%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	56
3912 Lake Pleasant Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-12%)	1mo	$142,900	$125	53
3013 Marvin Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,115 (-14%)	0mo	$125,000	$112	51
1021 E 31st St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-10%)	2mo	$130,900	$111	49
4016 East Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,486 (+14%)	0mo	$186,000	$125	46
837 E 42nd St	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,107 (-15%)	1mo	$191,500	$173	42
3729 State St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,461 (+12%)	1mo	$241,000	$165	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,539
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,677
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16504

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,635/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	44d	1	0.86mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	44d	1	0.88mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	0.94mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   listed $189,500 Active
3. 2023-02-16
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Everything Has Been Done For You. . Turn-Key South East Erie One Floor Easy Living W/ Four Bedrooms. Recently Updated Kitchen, Appliances, Carpeting, Vinyl Flooring, Newly Installed Privacy Wood Fence In Backyard W/ Storage Shed. Close To Mercyhurst, Shopping, Restaurants. Must See! Showings Begin At Open House, Sunday 12/18, 1PM to 3PM.

4. 2023-02-16
   soldstatus $160,000

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Everything Has Been Done For You. . Turn-Key South East Erie One Floor Easy Living W/ Four Bedrooms. Recently Updated Kitchen, Appliances, Carpeting, Vinyl Flooring, Newly Installed Privacy Wood Fence In Backyard W/ Storage Shed. Close To Mercyhurst, Shopping, Restaurants. Must See! Showings Begin At Open House, Sunday 12/18, 1PM to 3PM.

5. 2023-01-18
   status Pending 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Everything Has Been Done For You. . Turn-Key South East Erie One Floor Easy Living W/ Four Bedrooms. Recently Updated Kitchen, Appliances, Carpeting, Vinyl Flooring, Newly Installed Privacy Wood Fence In Backyard W/ Storage Shed. Close To Mercyhurst, Shopping, Restaurants. Must See! Showings Begin At Open House, Sunday 12/18, 1PM to 3PM.

6. 2022-12-13
   listed $159,900 Active 339-char remark

   Show marketing remark (339 chars)

   Everything Has Been Done For You. . Turn-Key South East Erie One Floor Easy Living W/ Four Bedrooms. Recently Updated Kitchen, Appliances, Carpeting, Vinyl Flooring, Newly Installed Privacy Wood Fence In Backyard W/ Storage Shed. Close To Mercyhurst, Shopping, Restaurants. Must See! Showings Begin At Open House, Sunday 12/18, 1PM to 3PM.

7. 2022-09-26
   soldstatus $159,900 Closed 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   This professionally remodeled, turn-key ranch is ready for new owners! Perfect for those looking for single story living without the added work. Fully updated/applianced kitchen with bar-height counter, formal dining room and expansive living room. All new vinyl floor and w-t-w carpet. Fully fenced and spacious backyard with storage shed. Conveniently located seconds away from Mercyhurst campus, downtown Erie and I-90. Would also make an excellent student or faculty investment property!

8. 2022-09-26
   soldstatus $159,900

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   This professionally remodeled, turn-key ranch is ready for new owners! Perfect for those looking for single story living without the added work. Fully updated/applianced kitchen with bar-height counter, formal dining room and expansive living room. All new vinyl floor and w-t-w carpet. Fully fenced and spacious backyard with storage shed. Conveniently located seconds away from Mercyhurst campus, downtown Erie and I-90. Would also make an excellent student or faculty investment property!

9. 2022-09-10
   historical 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   This professionally remodeled, turn-key ranch is ready for new owners! Perfect for those looking for single story living without the added work. Fully updated/applianced kitchen with bar-height counter, formal dining room and expansive living room. All new vinyl floor and w-t-w carpet. Fully fenced and spacious backyard with storage shed. Conveniently located seconds away from Mercyhurst campus, downtown Erie and I-90. Would also make an excellent student or faculty investment property!

10. 2022-08-19
    listed $159,900 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This professionally remodeled, turn-key ranch is ready for new owners! Perfect for those looking for single story living without the added work. Fully updated/applianced kitchen with bar-height counter, formal dining room and expansive living room. All new vinyl floor and w-t-w carpet. Fully fenced and spacious backyard with storage shed. Conveniently located seconds away from Mercyhurst campus, downtown Erie and I-90. Would also make an excellent student or faculty investment property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,635 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,635 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$3,635
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable income: $468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$112
• After-tax cash flow: $3,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,632

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Subsaharan African 2% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.54%
• Current HPI: 260.1053
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $189,500 GEBOR
• 2023-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-16 Sold (MLS) $160,000 GEBOR
• 2023-01-18 Pending — GEBOR
• 2022-12-13 Listed $159,900 GEBOR
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2022-09-26 Sold (MLS) $159,900 GEBOR
• 2022-09-10 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2022-08-19 Listed $159,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,635 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.