8470 Lapp Rd · Clarence Center, NY 14032

$169,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1920 0.73 ac lot $79/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

Key facts

• 1.60 acres
• Bonus rooms
• 0.73 acre lot

Tags

• SUBSTANTIAL LIVING SPACE
• BONUS ROOMS
• 1.60 ACRES
• SHORT DRIVE FROM AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.3% in Clarence Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#596 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Clarence Central School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #94 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.44%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $491,721
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -65.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8470 Lapp Rd	0.00mi	4/1.0	2,160 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$76	99
8345 Lapp Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,412 (+12%)	7mo	$455,000	$189	53
8372 County Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,426 (+12%)	16mo	$300,000	$124	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,504
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $49,766
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14032

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,823/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10332 Transit Rd East Amherst, NY	3.0	2.0	2072	$2,200	$1.06	1d	1	1.06mi
8845 County Rd East Amherst, NY	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,200	$1.29	43d	1	1.07mi
4410-4420 N French Rd East Amherst, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1176	$2,695	$2.29	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $169,900 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

3. 2026-03-31
   price $179,900 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

4. 2026-03-05
   price $189,900 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

5. 2026-02-04
   listed $199,900 Active 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   4 bed 1 bath home located in Clarence NY. This property offers substantial living space with bonus rooms creating versatility. With . 70 Acres on a rural road this property fulfills outdoor expectations while being a short drive from amenities. Don't miss out on this one of a kind opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,823 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,823 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$3,823
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,203
• − Management: −$2,203
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $4,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$961
• After-tax cash flow: $5,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clarence Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607590
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,568
• Composite: 64.85/100
• National rank: #514
• State rank: #94 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clarence Center

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #10843

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,359

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 19% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.32%
• Current HPI: 366.0549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,823 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.