409 N Mcqueary Ave · Ash Grove, MO 65604

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2005 0.27 ac lot $130/sqft · 11% below area Est $169k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ACCEPTED OFFER IN PLACE, WILL SHOW UC WHEN DOCS RECEIVED. CUTE 2005 built home in good condition has maintenance free vinyl sided exterior and tree shaded yard. This GREAT BUY offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, kitchen/dining w/ ash cabinets, central heat & air, deck, plus 1 car garage. Fannie Mae HomePath property selling AS IS w/ right to inspections. It is strongly encouraged that offer include proof of funds if cash, & preapproval lender letter if financed, & is requirement for final acceptance. No investor offers considered until 21st day on the market. NO repairs by seller.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 space; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Lot approximately 0.27 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Natural gas heating; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Electric oven; Free-standing electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Carpet flooring; Linoleum flooring; Ceiling fan(s); No fireplace listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.4% in Ash Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#435 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ash Grove R-IV (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ash Grove Elem. (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 259 students, 47% FRL); Bois D'Arc Elem. (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #95 of 391 statewide, top 25%, 144 students, 47% FRL); Ash Grove High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 329 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.18%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,307
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -11.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
410 N Gordon Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	4mo	$215,000	$172	76
502 W Mill St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,164 (+1%)	4mo	$199,900	$172	71
404 N Crestview Ave	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,104 (-4%)	1mo	$179,900	$163	62
301 W College St	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,062 (-8%)	13mo	$149,900	$141	62
711 W Woodbine Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	6mo	$179,900	$161	61
505 W Mill St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,277 (+11%)	3mo	$165,000	$129	58
604 S Brookside Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,268 (+10%)	9mo	$38,000	$30	52
228 N Pringle Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	21mo	$159,900	$151	50
409 E Walker St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-10%)	5mo	$99,900	$96	45
501 E Prairie Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-6%)	17mo	$192,500	$178	39
206 E College St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-14%)	21mo	$179,900	$182	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $22,888
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $80,648
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65604

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,386/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,220

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $826	-5% $783	+0% $741	+5% $698	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $570	-5% $656	+0% $741	+5% $826	+10% $911
Rate	-1.0pp $816	-0.5pp $779	base $741	+0.5pp $702	+1.0pp $663

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1367-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $149,900 Active 1367-char remark
3. 2015-04-17
   soldstatus 594-char remark

   Show marketing remark (594 chars)

   ACCEPTED OFFER IN PLACE, WILL SHOW UC WHEN DOCS RECEIVED. CUTE 2005 built home in good condition has maintenance free vinyl sided exterior and tree shaded yard. This GREAT BUY offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, kitchen/dining w/ ash cabinets, central heat & air, deck, plus 1 car garage. Fannie Mae HomePath property selling AS IS w/ right to inspections. It is strongly encouraged that offer include proof of funds if cash, & preapproval lender letter if financed, & is requirement for final acceptance. No investor offers considered until 21st day on the market. NO repairs by seller.

4. 2015-02-11
   soldstatus
5. 2015-02-10
   listed $67,500 594-char remark

   Show marketing remark (594 chars)

   ACCEPTED OFFER IN PLACE, WILL SHOW UC WHEN DOCS RECEIVED. CUTE 2005 built home in good condition has maintenance free vinyl sided exterior and tree shaded yard. This GREAT BUY offers 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, kitchen/dining w/ ash cabinets, central heat & air, deck, plus 1 car garage. Fannie Mae HomePath property selling AS IS w/ right to inspections. It is strongly encouraged that offer include proof of funds if cash, & preapproval lender letter if financed, & is requirement for final acceptance. No investor offers considered until 21st day on the market. NO repairs by seller.

6. 2014-08-15
   listed $70,000
7. 2014-03-21
   listed $60,000
8. 2007-07-02
   soldstatus
9. 2005-07-21
   soldstatus
10. 2004-12-22
    soldstatus
11. 2004-06-23
    soldstatus
12. 2001-08-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,386 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,386
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $6,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,647
• After-tax cash flow: $7,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ash Grove R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2903270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,679
• Composite: 35.45/100
• National rank: #4929
• State rank: #121 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ash Grove

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #17867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ash Grove, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,909

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.86%
• Current HPI: 231.5643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+149.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-06 Listed $149,900 SOMO
• 2015-04-17 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-02-10 Listed $67,500 SOMO
• 2014-08-15 Listed $70,000 SOMO
• 2014-03-21 Listed $60,000 SOMO
• 2007-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,386 · +13.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.