17 Schooner Ln · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$156,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1960 2,178 sqft lot $363/sqft · 50% above area Est $145k · 8% over ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location! This cottage is very close to the path to the Beach & Offers Peak A Boo Views from its Living Room & Deck! With Numerous Updates throughout you will see the value in this Vacation Home Located in Desirable Seasonal Only Community of Woodcliff Park Open April 15-October 15. Updates include Tile Floors, Updated Kitchen W/Built in Pantry, Granite Counters, & Several Updated Appliances, All New Furniture in Most of the home included in the sale, 2 Ac Units, New Plumbing pipes, & Tastefully Renovated Bathroom, Laundry For Convenience, & Spacious Entertainers Deck W/Gazebo Accent on Back for those that want some shade. Enjoy the beach or one of the numerous other local attractions like Splish splash water park, Wine Country, Outlet Shopping, Golfing, Horseback Riding, Fresh Farm Stands, Atlantis Aquarium & More. Start Making Memories to Last a Lifetime today. Land Is Leased at $8,650.35 annually. Cash Sales Only...

Key facts

• New plumbing pipes
• Gazebo accent
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• NEW PLUMBING PIPES
• TASTEFULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS ENTERTAINERS DECK
• GAZEBO ACCENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.95%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,169
• List price: $156,999
• Delta: 8.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Cottage Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0	450 (+4%)	10mo	$125,000	$278	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $107,288
• Equity at exit: $72,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $258,464
• Equity at exit: $114,174

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $1,354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $156,999

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,999 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,999 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,999 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,999 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,999 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,999 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,999 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $156,999 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $156,999 Active 215 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $156,999 Active 214 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,999 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,999 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,999 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    price $156,999 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Location Location! This cottage is very close to the path to the Beach & Offers Peak A Boo Views from its Living Room & Deck! With Numerous Updates throughout you will see the value in this Vacation Home Located in Desirable Seasonal Only Community of Woodcliff Park Open April 15-October 15. Updates include Tile Floors, Updated Kitchen W/Built in Pantry, Granite Counters, & Several Updated Appliances, All New Furniture in Most of the home included in the sale, 2 Ac Units, New Plumbing pipes, & Tastefully Renovated Bathroom, Laundry For Convenience, & Spacious Entertainers Deck W/Gazebo Accent on Back for those that want some shade. Enjoy the beach or one of the numerous other local attractions like Splish splash water park, Wine Country, Outlet Shopping, Golfing, Horseback Riding, Fresh Farm Stands, Atlantis Aquarium & More. Start Making Memories to Last a Lifetime today. Land Is Leased at $8,650.35 annually. Cash Sales Only...

15. 2026-03-18
    price $159,999 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Location Location! This cottage is very close to the path to the Beach & Offers Peak A Boo Views from its Living Room & Deck! With Numerous Updates throughout you will see the value in this Vacation Home Located in Desirable Seasonal Only Community of Woodcliff Park Open April 15-October 15. Updates include Tile Floors, Updated Kitchen W/Built in Pantry, Granite Counters, & Several Updated Appliances, All New Furniture in Most of the home included in the sale, 2 Ac Units, New Plumbing pipes, & Tastefully Renovated Bathroom, Laundry For Convenience, & Spacious Entertainers Deck W/Gazebo Accent on Back for those that want some shade. Enjoy the beach or one of the numerous other local attractions like Splish splash water park, Wine Country, Outlet Shopping, Golfing, Horseback Riding, Fresh Farm Stands, Atlantis Aquarium & More. Start Making Memories to Last a Lifetime today. Land Is Leased at $8,650.35 annually. Cash Sales Only...

16. 2025-11-01
    listed $165,000 Active 971-char remark

    Show marketing remark (971 chars)

    Location Location! This cottage is very close to the path to the Beach & Offers Peak A Boo Views from its Living Room & Deck! With Numerous Updates throughout you will see the value in this Vacation Home Located in Desirable Seasonal Only Community of Woodcliff Park Open April 15-October 15. Updates include Tile Floors, Updated Kitchen W/Built in Pantry, Granite Counters, & Several Updated Appliances, All New Furniture in Most of the home included in the sale, 2 Ac Units, New Plumbing pipes, & Tastefully Renovated Bathroom, Laundry For Convenience, & Spacious Entertainers Deck W/Gazebo Accent on Back for those that want some shade. Enjoy the beach or one of the numerous other local attractions like Splish splash water park, Wine Country, Outlet Shopping, Golfing, Horseback Riding, Fresh Farm Stands, Atlantis Aquarium & More. Start Making Memories to Last a Lifetime today. Land Is Leased at $8,650.35 annually. Cash Sales Only...

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$55/mo · 48.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,861
• − Management: −$2,861
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $14,550
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,492
• After-tax cash flow: $12,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $156,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $159,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,344 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.