15349 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48238

$129,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1926 3,920 sqft lot $90/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

6 bedroom, 2 bath home in Detroit. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing. Additional lot next door included in sale. Property is tenant occupied. All showings must be scheduled. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 62 days

Tags

• ADDITIONAL LOT NEXT DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,630/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 2172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 17 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,823
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 53.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15767 Northlawn St	0.46mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-1%)	3mo	$55,000	$39	64
15353 Indiana St	0.59mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,576 (+9%)	13mo	$42,509	$27	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $12,129
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $69,680
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48238

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,377/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,076

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3040 Kendall St Detroit, MI	5.0	1.0	1188	$1,386	$1.17	12d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $129,900 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    6 bedroom, 2 bath home in Detroit. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing. Additional lot next door included in sale. Property is tenant occupied. All showings must be scheduled. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $129,900 Active 250-char remark

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    6 bedroom, 2 bath home in Detroit. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing. Additional lot next door included in sale. Property is tenant occupied. All showings must be scheduled. Buyers agent to verify all information in this listing.

16. 2026-01-14
    historical
17. 2026-01-14
    historical
18. 2025-12-12
    price $129,900
19. 2025-12-11
    price $129,900
20. 2025-07-23
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 2025-07-23
    listed $140,000 Active
22. 2017-03-06
    soldstatus $514,000
23. 2017-02-17
    historical
24. 2017-02-17
    status Pending
25. 2017-02-16
    soldstatus $14,000 Sold
26. 2017-02-16
    soldstatus $14,000 Closed
27. 2017-02-04
    price $16,000
28. 2017-02-04
    status Active
29. 2017-02-04
    price $16,000
30. 2017-02-03
    status Active
31. 2017-02-02
    status Pending
32. 2017-02-02
    status Pending
33. 2016-12-03
    listed $18,000 Active
34. 2016-12-03
    listed $18,000 Active
35. 2016-12-01
    historical
36. 2016-11-30
    historical
37. 2016-09-02
    price $18,000
38. 2016-09-01
    price $18,000
39. 2016-08-11
    status Active
40. 2016-08-11
    status Active
41. 2016-06-19
    status Pending
42. 2016-06-18
    status Pending
43. 2016-04-13
    listed $20,000 Active
44. 2016-04-11
    price $20,000
45. 2016-03-11
    listed $22,500 Active
46. 2016-03-11
    historical
47. 2016-03-11
    historical
48. 2016-03-07
    price $19,900
49. 2016-02-04
    listed $25,000 Active
50. 2016-02-04
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,377 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$312/yr (+$26/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,377
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $4,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,731
• Household income: $33,315
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2172.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 94% Two or more races 3% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.96%
• Current HPI: 189.6227
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+170.6% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-23 Listed $140,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-07-23 Listed $140,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $514,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-16 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-16 Sold (MLS) $14,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-02-04 Price Changed $16,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-04 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-04 Price Changed $16,000 REALCOMP
• 2017-02-03 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2017-02-02 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-02 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-12-03 Listed $18,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-12-03 Listed $18,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-11-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-02 Price Changed $18,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-01 Price Changed $18,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-08-11 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-08-11 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2016-06-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-18 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2016-04-13 Listed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-11 Price Changed $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-11 Listed $22,500 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-03-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-03-07 Price Changed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-02-04 Listed $25,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-02-04 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-01-20 Sold (MLS) $1,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-12-31 Listed $1,100 REALCOMP
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-06-17 Listed $1,100 REALCOMP
• 2004-04-28 Sold (MLS) $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2004-02-16 Listed $12,000 REALCOMP
• 2000-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,377 · -37.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.