30650 233rd E · Piñon Hills, CA 93544

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1954 5.17 ac lot Est $186k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

seller will carry easy to qualify. 2br home with great views of the mountain and the valley. 5 acres with Joshua trees and junipers. Let nature surround you and yet be within 5+ miles to shops, restaurants, and gas stations. Just 3 miles south of Highway 18 on 233rd Street. If you are a desert lover and truly enjoy privacy, this is for you, Look no more. With 5 acres of land, there is space for all the toys and more. Seller will carry with easy terms. Got horses no problem. NO PUBLIC WATER "HAUL WATER ONLY"

Key facts

• Privacy
• Space for toys
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• JOSHUA TREES
• JUNIPERS
• PRIVACY
• SPACE FOR TOYS
• HORSES ALLOWED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic (type unknown) or no sewer; Water source: see remarks
• Home design: Cabin-style structure; Single-story; Has a view; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built per seller; No shared/common walls
• Exterior features: Rural setting; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: All bedrooms located on the main level; One-level home; Living room entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Piñon Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Keppel Union Elementary (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,089 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pearblossom Elementary (393 students, 76% FRL); Keppel Academy (233 students, 68% FRL); Littlerock High (1,565 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $514 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $199k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→5/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.97%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,832
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30840 234th St E	0.13mi	1/1.0	900 (-14%)	13mo	$160,000	$178	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $23,085
• Equity at exit: $60,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $82,927
• Equity at exit: $74,655

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93544

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $473	+0% $417	+5% $360	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $334	+0% $417	+5% $499	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $467	base $417	+0.5pp $365	+1.0pp $313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2025-07-03
    historical
18. 2025-06-20
    price $205,000
19. 2025-06-20
    price $205,000
20. 2025-06-02
    price $210,000
21. 2025-05-22
    price $210,000
22. 2025-03-31
    listed $225,000 Active
23. 2023-08-29
    historical $1,000
24. 2023-08-13
    listed $1,000
25. 1990-02-26
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 2 d/yr ≥96°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $1,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$442
• After-tax cash flow: $4,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keppel Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619440
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 27.26/100
• National rank: #12432
• State rank: #1089 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Piñon Hills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,854
• Population (ZIP): 1,201

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 24%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 4% Portuguese 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Current HPI: 310.0573
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+368.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $205,000 AVMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $210,000 AVMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $210,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $1,000 RENT.
• 2023-08-13 Listed for Rent $1,000 RENT.
• 1990-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.