4900 N Hwy 99 #237 · Stockton, CA 95212

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 89 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1977 Fair condition $56/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in North Stockton! Located in the desirable Stockton Verde all-age park, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home offers great potential for the right buyer. Featuring a Jack-and-Jill style restroom and a possible third bedroom or office space! Being sold as-is affordable opportunities like this are hard to find. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and freeway access. Don't miss the chance to make this home your own!

Key facts

• Office space
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977

Tags

• JACK-AND-JILL STYLE RESTROOM
• POSSIBLE THIRD BEDROOM
• OFFICE SPACE
• DINING AND FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.8% vs local median 3.7% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis Elementary (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 327 students, 85% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.17%
• DSCR: 5.06
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,910
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -63.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4900 N 99 Frontage Rd #232	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (-11%)	8mo	$118,000	$148	66
4900 N Highway 99 #213	0.09mi	2/1.0	806 (-10%)	18mo	$95,000	$118	63
4501 N Wilson Way #25	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+17%)	1mo	$157,000	$149	51
4900 N Highway 99 #97	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,047 (+16%)	19mo	$93,000	$89	50
5835 Cherokee Rd #42	1.12mi	2/2.0	812 (-10%)	0mo	$52,500	$65	44
4350 Cherokee Rd #34	0.94mi	2/1.0	800 (-11%)	14mo	$62,000	$78	34
4501 N Wilson Way #29	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+17%)	21mo	$112,000	$106	30
3431 - 3431 N Cherryland Ave #49	1.03mi	2/1.0	720 (-20%)	21mo	$80,000	$111	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $59,673
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.95×
• Total profit: $139,307
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $127,499 ($117/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +30.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $1,064

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,098	-5% $1,081	+0% $1,064	+5% $1,046	+10% $1,029
Rent	-10% $923	-5% $993	+0% $1,064	+5% $1,134	+10% $1,205
Rate	-1.0pp $1,089	-0.5pp $1,076	base $1,064	+0.5pp $1,051	+1.0pp $1,038

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No associationNot a senior communityLand lease: No (listed land lease amount noted separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parkingDeck
• Utilities: Cable availableNatural gas connectedPublic waterPublic sewer220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkSingle-wideFixer conditionBuilt in 1977
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingMetal roofOther roof material
• Exterior features: BackyardFront yardRegular lot shapeGreenbeltStorage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over rangeDishwasherFree-standing gas ovenPantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingWall and window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Hood over rangeDishwasherFree-standing gas ovenPantry cabinetPorchPets allowed: cats and dogs (number and size limits may apply)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home, located in the kitchen220V outlet in laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $50,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $50,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $50,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-07-25
    days on market $50,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-07-24
    days on market $50,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-07-23
    days on market $50,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $50,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-07-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $50,000 Active 68 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 65 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $50,000 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $50,000 Active 63 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $50,000 Active 62 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $50,000 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $50,000 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $50,000 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 53 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 52 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 51 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 50 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $50,000 Active 49 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $50,000 Active 48 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $50,000 Active 47 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $50,000 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $12,726
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,054
• After-tax cash flow: $9,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $22,500–$40,500 screening

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Exterior siding, kitchen, and bathroom updates are recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major kitchen cabinets — Outdated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and possibly inefficient
• Major HVAC units — Older units, possibly inefficient

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both kitchen renovation — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Davis Elementary F CA #1,335/1,571 Nat'l #35,051/41,679 Middle Morada Middle F CA #376/498 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Ronald E. Mcnair High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 796,965 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No associationNot a senior communityLand lease: No (listed land lease amount noted separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parkingDeck
• Utilities: Cable availableNatural gas connectedPublic waterPublic sewer220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a parkSingle-wideFixer conditionBuilt in 1977
• Construction: Aluminum skirtingMetal roofOther roof material
• Exterior features: BackyardFront yardRegular lot shapeGreenbeltStorage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over rangeDishwasherFree-standing gas ovenPantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom)
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heatingWall and window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Hood over rangeDishwasherFree-standing gas ovenPantry cabinetPorchPets allowed: cats and dogs (number and size limits may apply)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home, located in the kitchen220V outlet in laundry