4900 N Hwy 99 #237 · Stockton, CA 95212

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition $56/sqft · 19% below area Est $62k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in North Stockton! Located in the desirable Stockton Verde all-age park, this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home offers great potential for the right buyer. Featuring a Jack-and-Jill style restroom and a possible third bedroom or office space! Being sold as-is affordable opportunities like this are hard to find. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and freeway access. Don't miss the chance to make this home your own!

Key facts

• Office space
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977

Tags

• JACK-AND-JILL STYLE RESTROOM
• POSSIBLE THIRD BEDROOM
• OFFICE SPACE
• DINING AND FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount noted separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Deck
• Utilities: Cable available; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Single-wide; Fixer condition; Built in 1977
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Metal roof; Other roof material
• Exterior features: Backyard; Front yard; Regular lot shape; Greenbelt; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Pantry cabinet
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3rd bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall and window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Hood over range; Dishwasher; Free-standing gas oven; Pantry cabinet; Porch; Pets allowed: cats and dogs (number and size limits may apply)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home, located in the kitchen; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.2% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.79%
• DSCR: 6.86
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,544
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -18.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4900 N 99 Frontage Rd #232	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	800 (-11%)	6mo	$118,000	$148	67
4900 N Highway 99 #213	0.09mi	2/1.0	806 (-10%)	17mo	$95,000	$118	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $89,865
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.61×
• Total profit: $204,501
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95212

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $1,538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,572	-5% $1,555	+0% $1,538	+5% $1,520	+10% $1,503
Rent	-10% $1,349	-5% $1,443	+0% $1,538	+5% $1,632	+10% $1,726
Rate	-1.0pp $1,563	-0.5pp $1,550	base $1,538	+0.5pp $1,525	+1.0pp $1,511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $18,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,505
• After-tax cash flow: $13,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Exterior siding, kitchen, and bathroom updates are recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major kitchen cabinets — Outdated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — Old and possibly inefficient
• Major HVAC units — Older units, possibly inefficient

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both kitchen renovation — Modernizes space and increases value
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizes space and increases value
• Both HVAC replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Outdated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Old and possibly inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC units · Older units, possibly inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both kitchen renovation — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizes space and increases value ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,437
• Household income: $111,720
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 43% Hispanic / Latino 24% White 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Tagalog/Filipino 9%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.93%
• Current HPI: 265.3844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B