33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr · Pacific City, OR 97112

$59,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 985 sqft · Timeshare · 185 Days on market

Built 2007 $327/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR STATISTICAL PURPOSES. Beautiful Fractional Property...3 weeks per year. Perfect beach location. You will be enjoying luxury finishes with front & center views of Haystack Rock and Cape Kiwanda, surfers, and dory boats. A one-of-a-kind location combined with first class construction and ongoing top quality management.

Key facts

• Oceanfront cottage
• Built-in fireplace
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OCEANFRONT COTTAGE
• FULLY FURNISHED COTTAGE
• BUILT-IN FIREPLACE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EATING BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Cottages Home Owner Association; Annual association fee (fee covers cable TV, electricity, gas, insurance, internet, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash, water, utilities and property taxes for common areas); Community amenities include fitness center, laundry, sauna, spa/hot tub, picnic area and beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Propane available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Built in 2007; Cedar construction; Composition roof
• Construction: Cedar siding; Composition roof; Built in 2007
• Exterior features: Entry-level flat; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a second bedroom; Living room, kitchen and dining room included in layout
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas fireplace; Central air
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 1.9% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $584 of equity ($414 loan paydown + $170 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.11%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $12,723
• Equity at exit: $18,248

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $38,068
• Equity at exit: $22,629

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97112

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $59,900 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $1,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$463
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 2,108

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 206.6311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+19.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Listed $59,900 OCMLS
• 2020-12-31 Listed $50,000 OCMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $50,000 OCMLS