5069 Boulder Dr · Hermantown, MN 55811

$92,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 1995 2,800 sqft lot $76/sqft · at area comps Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this better than new manufactured home in Bel Air Manor. Totally remodeled. Easy living in Hermantown, 1216 sq ft of living space on one level with open concept kitchen and living room, split bedroom design. New flooring and paint throughout , new appliances, countertops and sink, all new bathrooms, with the primary bathroom having a walk-in shower. New deck, exterior paint and roof. This home has had virtually everything redone . come and see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Open concept kitchen
• Split bedroom design

Tags

• REMODELED
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 2.1% in Hermantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#446 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hermantown Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #73 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $92k implies a 352% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $90,620 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.40%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,868
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: 3.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $53,358
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $144,560
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55811

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $805

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Unit 124 Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,750	$1.47	13d	1	1.26mi
4877 W Arrowhead Rd Hermantown, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,695	$1.42	43d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Come see this better than new manufactured home in Bel Air Manor. Totally remodeled. Easy living in Hermantown, 1216 sq ft of living space on one level with open concept kitchen and living room, split bedroom design. New flooring and paint throughout , new appliances, countertops and sink, all new bathrooms, with the primary bathroom having a walk-in shower. New deck, exterior paint and roof. This home has had virtually everything redone . come and see it before it's gone!

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $92,000 Active 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Come see this better than new manufactured home in Bel Air Manor. Totally remodeled. Easy living in Hermantown, 1216 sq ft of living space on one level with open concept kitchen and living room, split bedroom design. New flooring and paint throughout , new appliances, countertops and sink, all new bathrooms, with the primary bathroom having a walk-in shower. New deck, exterior paint and roof. This home has had virtually everything redone . come and see it before it's gone!

3. 2018-11-30
   soldstatus $20,345 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Affordable living in Hermantown! 5069 Boulder Dr is a 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home in the Bel Aire Manor home park in Hermantown. Recent updates include new wood laminate flooring in the living room, bedrooms, and hallways, and a new forced air unit (2014). An open floor plan and tall ceilings offer a spacious feel. The master bed has a private master bath with a separate shower. The small deck off the side of the home is a great spot to BBQ, and a storage shed offers extra storage space. Monthly lot lease in Bel Aire Manor is $345, and includes garbage service. Occupant pays all other utilities. New occupant application fee is $25 and includes a background check. Bel Aire also has a 1 pet policy with a weight restriction for dogs (application required for a pet).

4. 2018-08-10
   listed $24,900 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Affordable living in Hermantown! 5069 Boulder Dr is a 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home in the Bel Aire Manor home park in Hermantown. Recent updates include new wood laminate flooring in the living room, bedrooms, and hallways, and a new forced air unit (2014). An open floor plan and tall ceilings offer a spacious feel. The master bed has a private master bath with a separate shower. The small deck off the side of the home is a great spot to BBQ, and a storage shed offers extra storage space. Monthly lot lease in Bel Aire Manor is $345, and includes garbage service. Occupant pays all other utilities. New occupant application fee is $25 and includes a background check. Bel Aire also has a 1 pet policy with a weight restriction for dogs (application required for a pet).

5. 2013-11-01
   soldstatus $23,000
6. 2013-09-11
   listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $11,427
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,742
• After-tax cash flow: $9,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hermantown Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2713920
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $67,133
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2438
• State rank: #73 of 301 in MN

Livability — Hermantown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #10529

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hermantown, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 28,218
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 28,118
• Household income: $79,804
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.84%
• Current HPI: 198.2613
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+268.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-04-21 Listed $92,000 LSAR
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) $20,345 LSAR
• 2018-08-10 Listed $24,900 LSAR
• 2013-11-01 Sold (MLS) $23,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-11 Listed $25,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid