20574 E Park View Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$280,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 0.35 ac lot Est $249k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bath manufactured home in the peaceful Cordes Lakes area of Mayer! Situated on a generous 0.35-acre lot, this property offers plenty of space both inside and out with approximately 1,792 square feet of comfortable living. The flexible layout provides room for guests, a home office, playroom, or multi-generational living. Outside, enjoy wide-open skies, beautiful Arizona surroundings, and plenty of space for RV parking, toys, gardening, or entertaining. Conveniently located with easy access to I-17, making trips to both Phoenix and Prescott a breeze. Affordable country-style living with room to make it your own!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Easy access to i-17
• 0.35-acre lot

Tags

• 0.35-ACRE LOT
• RV PARKING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-17

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Utilities: Propane service; Private water company; Septic (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Dirt front yard; Dirt back yard; Mountain views; County-maintained road access; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 12 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,625 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,088
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15364 S Black Mountain Rd S	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+4%)	1mo	$258,000	$139	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $131,739
• Equity at exit: $252,246

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $404,357
• Equity at exit: $543,978

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $232,772

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $280,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 661-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $280,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$8,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+237.3% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $280,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $277,500 Public Records
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) $277,500 ARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) $277,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-02-12 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2024-02-12 Contingent — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $277,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-17 Price Changed $277,500 ARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $299,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-08 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2023-12-08 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-28 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-13 Listed $319,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) $245,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-21 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-17 Relisted — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-10 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Listed $243,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-08-24 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2010-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-10-30 Listed $83,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $285 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.