6653 Highland Dr · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1998 2.40 ac lot Est $176k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your private retreat in Keystone Heights! Situated on 2.4 acres, this property at 6653 Highland Dr offers the perfect blend of space, privacy, and North Florida charm. With over 1,000 sq ft of living space, the home provides a comfortable layout with plenty of natural light and room to make it your own. Enjoy peaceful country living with ample room for outdoor activities, entertaining, or future improvements. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers versatility and value. Conveniently located within a short drive to Jacksonville, you get the best of both worlds--quiet, rural surroundings with easy access to s

Key facts

• 2.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached covered parking; Additional parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Used for residential, farm, recreational, livestock, hunting, horses, and manufactured home purposes
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 2.4-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Convection oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.7% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $170k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,988 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.25%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,352
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6791 Fern Creek Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	14mo	$200,000	$167	62
6831 Cedar Brook Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+13%)	6mo	$76,500	$64	60
6706 Autumnwood Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	15mo	$205,000	$214	53
6830 Oakbrook Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+7%)	21mo	$174,900	$154	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-16,807
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-853
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $217	+0% $169	+5% $120	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $40	-5% $104	+0% $169	+5% $233	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $212	base $169	+0.5pp $124	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $169,900 Active
16. 2005-10-05
    soldstatus $74,000
17. 1998-02-06
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,888 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,888 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2023.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $169,900 realMLS
• 2005-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1998-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,888 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.